Primary turnout against the general, cycle by cycle
A scatter, one ring per state per party. Y is general-election votes ÷ primary votes (same year for presidential cycles, the prior presidential cycle for midterms), on a log scale — so a lower ring means more of a party's general-election vote showed up in its primary. The solid line is that cycle's state median; 2026 is drawn on the dash because only TX, NC, IL, MS and AR have reported.
Sources · FEC primary returns 2000–2024 · 2026 partial: TX/NC/IL/MS/AR via Sec. of State / Board of Elections offices. GE denominator = state pres GE total in matched cycle.
The enthusiasm gap against what the country then did
A scatter of cycles, one ring each. X is ln(R median ratio ÷ D median ratio), so positive X means Democrats had the relatively higher primary enthusiasm. Y is the Democratic share of the two-party national vote — presidential in presidential years, House in midterms. The three solid lines are least-squares fits; the 2026 mark is their mean, with a ±2.5 point bar, and it is an estimate rather than an observation.
Median ratio = state-level median of (GE votes ÷ primary votes) per party. Y converted from cycle environment (env = D−R national popular margin), so D share = (100 + env)/2.