Each dot is one state. Y = GE vote ÷ primary vote (same year for presidential cycles, prior presidential cycle for midterms). Log scale. 2026 dots (ringed) cover TX, NC, IL, MS, AR. Bars = state median per cycle.
Sources · FEC primary returns 2000–2024 · 2026 partial: TX/NC/IL/MS/AR via Sec. of State / Board of Elections offices. GE denominator = state pres GE total in matched cycle.
X = ln(R median ratio / D median ratio). Positive X = Democrats had relatively higher primary enthusiasm. Y = D two-party share of the relevant national popular vote (presidential popular vote in pres years, House popular vote in midterms). 2026 projection from mean of three regression lines.
Median ratio = state-level median of (GE votes ÷ primary votes) per party. Y converted from cycle environment (env = D−R national popular margin), so D share = (100 + env)/2.