Nationalization / Indicator
Candidate over/underperformance vs presidential baseline
Median—
Mean—
n—
house
governor
senate
How far each race ran from its presidential baseline
how to read · one hollow ring is one race; across is the margin it
actually won by, up is how far that sat from the same state's presidential margin. The thin
diagonal is where a race matched its baseline exactly, and the ink rule across the plot is
the median.
Source: certified results for each race, against the presidential
margin in the same state — the same cycle for 2024, the prior presidential cycle for
midterms.
How far the races sat from their baseline
how to read · each bar is how many races landed at that distance from their state's presidential lean; left of zero is Republican overperformance.
Source: certified results and the presidential baseline for the same cycle.