Method. Y = race D−R margin minus state's presidential D−R margin (same-year baseline for 2024; cross-year nationalized index for 2018/2022). X = raw race margin. Points above the 45° line = Democrat candidate overperformed the state's presidential lean; below = Republican overperformed. Pres baseline year: 2024. 2024: 35 Senate, 11 Gov, 393 contested House (excludes uncontested + jungle-primary D vs D races). Senate sources: Wikipedia certified results. House: The Downballot pres-by-CD baselines + michaelminn.net consolidated state SoS results.