index
Projects
Standalone analyses, dashboards, and election-night coverage.
projects
Texas Senate '26
Talarico vs. the field: Texas Democratic fundraising
Cumulative inflation-adjusted fundraising for four recent Texas Democratic statewide challengers, charted by months to general election. Talarico's seven-month haul versus Beto '18, Beto '22 governor, and Allred '24.
ChartFEC · TECOpen ›
national analysis
Primary turnout as a general election signal
State-by-state primary-to-general vote ratios for Democrats and Republicans, 2000–2026. Tests whether the primary enthusiasm gap predicts the national environment in November.
InteractiveFEC · State SOSOpen ›
midterm races
Nationalization indicator for 2026
A district-level measure of how closely individual Senate, House, and gubernatorial races are tracking the national environment. Filter by chamber, sort by deviation, and see who's running ahead or behind their baseline.
Interactive2026 forecast modelOpen ›
CA gov model
Open ›
Lindsey Graham approval
Open ›
International polling averages
Open ›
Texas trends
Open ›
VoteHub publishment
Open ›
American shift
Open ›
Texas voter turnout dashboard
Open ›
Texas income to swing, 2020 and 2024
Open ›