Past elections, hindcast
Year
President
No race this year
Virginia Governor
Spanberger (D) vs Earle-Sears (R)
D96.0
R4.0
hover a state for details
The model gave Democrats 96% before the 2025 vote
/
how to read · the model as it stood on each day of that cycle, not as it looks now.
Source: certified results, with the model re-run on what was known at the time.
New Jersey Governor
Sherrill (D) vs Ciattarelli (R)
D96.0
R4.0
hover a state for details
The model gave Democrats 96% before the 2025 vote
/
how to read · the model as it stood on each day of that cycle, not as it looks now.
Source: certified results, with the model re-run on what was known at the time.
CA Proposition 50
Redistricting — Support vs Oppose
D100.0
R0.0
hover a state for details
The model gave Democrats 100% before the 2025 vote
/
how to read · the model as it stood on each day of that cycle, not as it looks now.
Source: certified results, with the model re-run on what was known at the time.