Theo·Election Forecast '26

Past elections, hindcast

Year

President

No race this year

Virginia Governor

Spanberger (D) vs Earle-Sears (R)
D96.0
R4.0
hover a state for details
The model gave Democrats 96% before the 2025 vote
/
how to read · the model as it stood on each day of that cycle, not as it looks now.
Source: certified results, with the model re-run on what was known at the time.

New Jersey Governor

Sherrill (D) vs Ciattarelli (R)
D96.0
R4.0
hover a state for details
The model gave Democrats 96% before the 2025 vote
/
how to read · the model as it stood on each day of that cycle, not as it looks now.
Source: certified results, with the model re-run on what was known at the time.

CA Proposition 50

Redistricting — Support vs Oppose
D100.0
R0.0
hover a state for details
The model gave Democrats 100% before the 2025 vote
/
how to read · the model as it stood on each day of that cycle, not as it looks now.
Source: certified results, with the model re-run on what was known at the time.
Updated  Jul 28, 2026·Simulations  10,000·Polls  124·Days to election  97