Theo
·
Election Forecast '26
Model
·
Ratings
·
Florida
·
Polls
·
Swingometer
·
Past Elections
·
State Legs.
·
Projects
·
Methodology
%
☾
Donate
Year
2025
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
President
No race this year
Virginia Governor
Spanberger (D) vs Earle-Sears (R)
D
96.0
R
4.0
Hover a state for details
Win probability
prob.
/
seats
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
New Jersey Governor
Sherrill (D) vs Ciattarelli (R)
D
96.0
R
4.0
Hover a state for details
Win probability
prob.
/
seats
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CA Proposition 50
Redistricting — Support vs Oppose
D
100.0
R
0.0
Hover a state for details
Win probability
prob.
/
seats
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Model
Ratings
Florida Redistricting
Polls
Swingometer
Past Elections
State Legs.
Methodology
Forecast
Nowcast
Senate
Class II - 2026
⛶
59.5
40.5
D
52
R
48
← US
Click a state to zoom in
Senate
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
⛶
86.1
13.9
D
29
R
21
← US
Click a state to zoom in
Governor
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
⛶
99.5
0.5
D
249
R
186
US
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NYC
LA
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More…
HOU
ATL
DC
PHX
MIA
Congress
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Forecast
Nowcast
Senate
Class II - 2026
Senate
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
Governor
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
US
State…
|
NYC
LA
CHI
DFW
More…
HOU
ATL
DC
PHX
MIA
Congress
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
2025
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
President
59th Presidential Election
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
President
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Virginia Governor
Spanberger (D) vs Earle-Sears (R)
96.0
4.0
D
56.1
R
43.9
Virginia Governor
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Model: D+12.3
New Jersey Governor
Sherrill (D) vs Ciattarelli (R)
96.0
4.0
D
56.1
R
43.9
New Jersey Governor
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Model: D+12.3
CA Proposition 50
Redistricting — Support vs Oppose
100.0
0.0
D
62.0
R
38.0
CA Proposition 50
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Model: D+24.0
Senate
Class II - 2026
50.0
50.0
National Two-Party Vote
D
50.0
R
50.0
Margin
Tied
D
—
R
—
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
50.0
50.0
National Two-Party Vote
D
50.0
R
50.0
Margin
Tied
D
—
R
—
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
50.0
50.0
National Two-Party Vote
D
50.0
R
50.0
Margin
Tied
D
—
R
—
-->
House
Senate
Split
Sync zoom
State House
Lower chambers — district baselines
—
—
Model
Ratings
D
—
|
R
—
Hover a district
State House Map
District baselines
US
State…
Forecast
Nowcast
Old map · Forecast
Pre-redistricting · national GB
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
New map · Forecast
Post-redistricting · national GB
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Old map · Swingometer
Pre-redistricting · custom inputs
—
—
D
—
R
—
Hisp D
—
Hisp R
—
D
—
R
—
New map · Swingometer
Post-redistricting · custom inputs
—
—
D
—
R
—
Hisp D
—
Hisp R
—
D
—
R
—
Approval / Gen Ballot
50.0
50.0
Senate
Class II - 2026
Governor
Gubernatorial - 2026
D
—
R
—
D
—
R
—
D
—
R
—
Generic Ballot
Scatter plot · moving average
Gen Ballot
Approval
Raw %
Click a state to see polls
Raw %
Click a state to see polls
Raw %