Theo·Election Forecast '26

Polling for 2026

Where the national vote sits today

Generic congressional ballot and presidential approval, weighted rolling average of published polls.
share of the two-party vote, latest average
dem
50.0
/
rep
42.6
Democrats lead the generic ballot by 7.4
/
how to read · a hollow ring is one poll, the solid line is their average, and the solid dot is the point under your cursor. The line breaks where no poll stands behind it and opens on a dash while only one does. The bar above is the daily margin off the even-vote rule, read against the scale at its left.
the record
Every poll behind this average, most recent first
datepollsterDRmargin
2026-06-22Verasight50.043.0D+7.0
2026-06-15Marquette University Law School53.045.0D+8.0
2026-06-08Emerson College50.339.5D+10.8
2026-06-03The Argument/Verasight53.047.0D+6.0
2026-05-28TIPP Insights46.041.0D+5.0
2026-05-26Marquette University Law School49.048.0D+1.0
2026-05-25Emerson College49.841.3D+8.5
2026-05-20Verasight/Morris Predictive Insights52.041.0D+11.0
2026-05-19Verasight51.043.0D+8.0
2026-05-18Quinnipiac University50.039.0D+11.0
2026-05-15The New York Times/Siena University49.539.1D+10.4
2026-05-07AtlasIntel54.640.1D+14.5
2026-05-04CNN/SSRS45.042.0D+3.0
2026-04-30Marist University52.042.0D+10.0
2026-04-26Emerson College50.340.2D+10.1
2026-04-23The Argument/Verasight53.047.0D+6.0
2026-04-20Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research52.047.0D+5.0
2026-04-20Leger52.042.0D+10.0
2026-04-16Marquette University Law School53.043.0D+10.0
2026-04-14Verasight50.043.0D+7.0
2026-03-30CNN/SSRS48.042.0D+6.0
2026-03-23Quinnipiac University51.040.0D+11.0
2026-03-17Emerson College49.241.5D+7.7
2026-03-17The Argument/Verasight54.046.0D+8.0
2026-03-04Marist University53.044.0D+9.0
2026-02-27TIPP Insights46.044.0D+2.0
2026-02-22Emerson College50.442.4D+8.0
2026-02-20Verasight52.042.0D+10.0
2026-02-10The Argument/Verasight53.047.0D+6.0
2026-01-29TIPP Insights45.042.0D+3.0
2026-01-28Marquette University Law School45.039.0D+6.0
2026-01-27The Argument/Verasight55.045.0D+10.0
2026-01-26Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research52.046.0D+6.0
2026-01-20Verasight51.043.0D+8.0
2026-01-19Emerson College48.141.7D+6.4
2026-01-17The New York Times/Siena College48.043.0D+5.0
2026-01-12CNN/SSRS46.041.0D+5.0
2025-12-19AtlasIntel54.438.4D+16.0
2025-12-15Quinnipiac University47.043.0D+4.0
2025-12-11The Argument/Verasight50.649.4D+1.2
2025-11-17The Argument/Verasight53.047.0D+6.0
2025-11-14Verasight47.042.0D+5.0
2025-11-13Marist College55.041.0D+14.0
2025-11-12Marquette University Law School46.041.0D+5.0
2025-11-04Emerson College43.540.1D+3.4
2025-10-30CNN/SSRS47.042.0D+5.0
2025-10-29Verasight49.041.0D+8.0
2025-10-20Quinnipiac University50.041.0D+9.0
2025-10-16The Argument/Verasight51.049.0D+2.0
2025-10-14Emerson College43.942.5D+1.4
2025-09-27The New York Times/Siena College47.045.0D+2.0
2025-09-19Verasight47.042.0D+5.0
2025-09-18The Argument/Verasight53.047.0D+6.0
2025-09-16AtlasIntel51.843.5D+8.3
2025-09-01CNN/SSRS52.048.0D+4.0
2025-08-26Emerson College43.343.0D+0.3
2025-08-21Verasight49.041.0D+8.0
2025-08-17The Argument/Verasight50.749.3D+1.4
2025-07-22Emerson College44.041.5D+2.5
2025-07-18AtlasIntel51.342.7D+8.6
2025-07-16Verasight47.043.0D+4.0
2025-06-25Emerson College42.539.8D+2.7
Source: VoteHub polls API. Averages are ours; nothing is projected forward.

What Senate polling says, state by state

Every 2026 Senate race with published polling, averaged over its most recent surveys.
poll average, selected state
dem
45.5
/
rep
45.0
ALAKCOFLGAKSMEMAMNNCOKSDTXWYWVILNMARIAKYMIMSMTNHOHORTNVANESCIDLA
how to read · fill leans to the leading party and darkens with the margin, a race inside two points is overprinted, an unpolled state stays paper.
click a state to read its polls
Every unit on the map above, and what its fill says
unitwhat the map says
Alabamano polls yet
AlaskaD+3.1 from 6 polls
Arkansasno polls yet
Coloradono polls yet
Delawareno polls yet
FloridaR+6.7 from 7 polls
GeorgiaD+4.8 from 4 polls
IdahoR+14.0 from 1 poll
Illinoisno polls yet
IowaR+2.3 from 4 polls
Kansasno polls yet
KentuckyR+11.0 from 1 poll
Louisianano polls yet
MaineD+5.0 from 8 polls
MassachusettsD+21.0 from 2 polls
MichiganD+3.0 from 2 polls
MinnesotaD+3.0 from 1 poll
Mississippino polls yet
Montanano polls yet
Nebraskainside two points from 3 polls
New HampshireD+4.2 from 6 polls
New Jerseyno polls yet
New Mexicono polls yet
North CarolinaD+11.9 from 12 polls
Ohioinside two points from 6 polls
Oklahomano polls yet
Oregonno polls yet
Rhode Islandno polls yet
South CarolinaR+5.5 from 2 polls
South Dakotano polls yet
Tennesseeno polls yet
Texasinside two points from 6 polls
Virginiano polls yet
West Virginiano polls yet
Wyomingno polls yet
every state with polling, and where it stands
  • Alabamano polls yet
  • AlaskaD+3.1
  • Arkansasno polls yet
  • Coloradono polls yet
  • Delawareno polls yet
  • FloridaR+6.7
  • GeorgiaD+4.8
  • IdahoR+14.0
  • Illinoisno polls yet
  • IowaR+2.3
  • Kansasno polls yet
  • KentuckyR+11.0
  • Louisianano polls yet
  • MaineD+5.0
  • MassachusettsD+21.0
  • MichiganD+3.0
  • MinnesotaD+3.0
  • Mississippino polls yet
  • Montanano polls yet
  • Nebraskainside two points
  • New HampshireD+4.2
  • New Jerseyno polls yet
  • New Mexicono polls yet
  • North CarolinaD+11.9
  • Ohioinside two points
  • Oklahomano polls yet
  • Oregonno polls yet
  • Rhode Islandno polls yet
  • South CarolinaR+5.5
  • South Dakotano polls yet
  • Tennesseeno polls yet
  • Texasinside two points
  • Virginiano polls yet
  • West Virginiano polls yet
  • Wyomingno polls yet
Democrats lead Texas by 0.5
Source: VoteHub polls API. Averages are ours; nothing is projected forward.

What gubernatorial polling says, state by state

Every 2026 governor's race with published polling, averaged over its most recent surveys.
poll average, selected state
dem
43.3
/
rep
38.3
ALAKAZCOFLGAKSMEMAMNOKPASDTXWYCTILNMARCAHIIAMDMINHNYOHORTNWINESCIDNVVT
how to read · fill leans to the leading party and darkens with the margin, a race inside two points is overprinted, an unpolled state stays paper.
click a state to read its polls
Every unit on the map above, and what its fill says
unitwhat the map says
Alabamano polls yet
AlaskaD+2.0 from 1 poll
ArizonaD+5.0 from 6 polls
Arkansasno polls yet
Californiano polls yet
Coloradono polls yet
Connecticutno polls yet
FloridaR+5.6 from 4 polls
Georgiano polls yet
Hawaiino polls yet
Idahono polls yet
Illinoisno polls yet
IowaD+5.0 from 2 polls
Kansasno polls yet
Maineno polls yet
Marylandno polls yet
Massachusettsno polls yet
Michiganno polls yet
MinnesotaD+20.0 from 1 poll
Nebraskano polls yet
Nevadainside two points from 2 polls
New HampshireR+9.9 from 3 polls
New Mexicono polls yet
New YorkD+12.3 from 3 polls
OhioD+3.3 from 4 polls
Oklahomano polls yet
Oregonno polls yet
PennsylvaniaD+18.7 from 3 polls
Rhode Islandno polls yet
South Carolinano polls yet
South Dakotano polls yet
Tennesseeno polls yet
TexasR+8.0 from 1 poll
Vermontno polls yet
WisconsinD+4.1 from 2 polls
Wyomingno polls yet
every state with polling, and where it stands
  • Alabamano polls yet
  • AlaskaD+2.0
  • ArizonaD+5.0
  • Arkansasno polls yet
  • Californiano polls yet
  • Coloradono polls yet
  • Connecticutno polls yet
  • FloridaR+5.6
  • Georgiano polls yet
  • Hawaiino polls yet
  • Idahono polls yet
  • Illinoisno polls yet
  • IowaD+5.0
  • Kansasno polls yet
  • Maineno polls yet
  • Marylandno polls yet
  • Massachusettsno polls yet
  • Michiganno polls yet
  • MinnesotaD+20.0
  • Nebraskano polls yet
  • Nevadainside two points
  • New HampshireR+9.9
  • New Mexicono polls yet
  • New YorkD+12.3
  • OhioD+3.3
  • Oklahomano polls yet
  • Oregonno polls yet
  • PennsylvaniaD+18.7
  • Rhode Islandno polls yet
  • South Carolinano polls yet
  • South Dakotano polls yet
  • Tennesseeno polls yet
  • TexasR+8.0
  • Vermontno polls yet
  • WisconsinD+4.1
  • Wyomingno polls yet
Democrats lead Arizona by 5.0
Source: VoteHub polls API. Averages are ours; nothing is projected forward.
Updated  Jul 28, 2026·Simulations  10,000·Polls  124·Days to election  97