Theo
·
Election Forecast '26
Model
·
Ratings
·
Florida
·
Polls
·
Swingometer
·
Past Elections
·
State Legs.
·
Projects
·
Methodology
%
☾
Donate
Forecast
·
Nowcast
Senate
Class II · 2026
D
15
R
16
10
Safe D
5
Likely D
0
Lean D
4
Tossup
4
Lean R
3
Likely R
9
Safe R
10
5
4
4
3
9
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
4
Tossup
races
Hover a state for details
Rating counts
detailed
/
face-off
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Gubernatorial
Governor · 2026
D
19
R
13
14
Safe D
2
Likely D
3
Lean D
4
Tossup
4
Lean R
2
Likely R
7
Safe R
14
2
3
4
4
2
7
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
4
Tossup
races
Hover a state for details
Rating counts
detailed
/
face-off
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
0
10
20
30
Congress
120th Congress · 2026
D
235
R
176
198
Safe D
24
Likely D
13
Lean D
24
Tossup
33
Lean R
55
Likely R
88
Safe R
198
24
13
24
33
55
88
Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
24
Tossup
races
Hover a district for details
US
State…
·
NYC
LA
CHI
DFW
More…
HOU
ATL
DC
PHX
MIA
Rating counts
detailed
/
face-off
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
0
100
200
300
400
Updated
Nov 3, 2026
·
Simulations
10,000
·
Polls
114
·
Days to election
169
Model
Ratings
Florida Redistricting
Polls
Swingometer
Past Elections
State Legs.
Methodology
Forecast
Nowcast
Senate
Class II - 2026
⛶
59.5
40.5
D
52
R
48
← US
Click a state to zoom in
Senate
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
⛶
86.1
13.9
D
29
R
21
← US
Click a state to zoom in
Governor
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
⛶
99.5
0.5
D
249
R
186
US
State…
Alaska
Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Iowa
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Massachusetts
Maryland
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Mississippi
Montana
North Carolina
North Dakota
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Nevada
New York
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Wyoming
|
NYC
LA
CHI
DFW
More…
HOU
ATL
DC
PHX
MIA
Congress
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Forecast
Nowcast
Senate
Class II - 2026
34
-
10
-
5
-
0
4
4
-
3
-
9
-
31
10
5
4
4
3
9
Safe D
Lkly D
Toss
Lean R
Lkly R
Safe R
D 49
4 Tossup
R 47
Senate
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
6
-
14
-
2
-
3
4
4
-
2
-
7
-
8
14
2
3
4
4
2
7
Safe D
Lean D
Toss
Lean R
Safe R
D 25
4 Tossup
R 21
Governor
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
198
-
24
-
13
24
33
-
55
-
88
198
24
24
33
55
88
Safe D
Lean R
Lkly R
Safe R
D 235
24 Tossup
R 176
US
State…
|
NYC
LA
CHI
DFW
More…
HOU
ATL
DC
PHX
MIA
Congress
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
President
59th Presidential Election
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
President
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Senate
Class I & III - 2024
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Senate
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Governor
Gubernatorial - 2024
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Governor
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Congress
119th Congress - 2024
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Congress
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Senate
Class II - 2026
50.0
50.0
National Two-Party Vote
D
50.0
R
50.0
Margin
Tied
D
—
R
—
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
50.0
50.0
National Two-Party Vote
D
50.0
R
50.0
Margin
Tied
D
—
R
—
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
50.0
50.0
National Two-Party Vote
D
50.0
R
50.0
Margin
Tied
D
—
R
—
-->
House
Senate
Split
Sync zoom
State House
Lower chambers — district baselines
—
—
Model
Ratings
D
—
|
R
—
Hover a district
State House Map
District baselines
US
State…
Forecast
Nowcast
Old map · Forecast
Pre-redistricting · national GB
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
New map · Forecast
Post-redistricting · national GB
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Old map · Swingometer
Pre-redistricting · custom inputs
—
—
D
—
R
—
Hisp D
—
Hisp R
—
D
—
R
—
New map · Swingometer
Post-redistricting · custom inputs
—
—
D
—
R
—
Hisp D
—
Hisp R
—
D
—
R
—
Approval / Gen Ballot
50.0
50.0
Senate
Class II - 2026
Governor
Gubernatorial - 2026
D
—
R
—
D
—
R
—
D
—
R
—
Generic Ballot
Scatter plot · moving average
Gen Ballot
Approval
Raw %
Click a state to see polls
Raw %
Click a state to see polls
Raw %