Race ratings for 2026
Senate
Class II · 2026
D15
R17
9
Safe D
4
Likely D
2
Lean D
3
Tossup
5
Lean R
3
Likely R
9
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DTossupLean RLikely RSafe R
how to read · the bar is the whole map, split by tier; each block's width is its share of the races.
3 Tossup races
hover a state for details
| unit | what the map says |
|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe R |
| Alaska | Tossup |
| Arkansas | Safe R |
| Colorado | Safe D |
| Delaware | Safe D |
| Florida | Lean R |
| Georgia | Lean D |
| Idaho | Safe R |
| Illinois | Safe D |
| Iowa | Lean R |
| Kansas | Lean R |
| Kentucky | Safe R |
| Louisiana | Likely R |
| Maine | Likely D |
| Massachusetts | Safe D |
| Michigan | Lean D |
| Minnesota | Likely D |
| Mississippi | Likely R |
| Montana | Likely R |
| Nebraska | Lean R |
| New Hampshire | Likely D |
| New Jersey | Safe D |
| New Mexico | Safe D |
| North Carolina | Likely D |
| Ohio | Tossup |
| Oklahoma | Safe R |
| Oregon | Safe D |
| Rhode Island | Safe D |
| South Carolina | Lean R |
| South Dakota | Safe R |
| Tennessee | Safe R |
| Texas | Tossup |
| Virginia | Safe D |
| West Virginia | Safe R |
| Wyoming | Safe R |
every race, and where it is rated
- AlabamaSafe R
- AlaskaTossup
- ArkansasSafe R
- ColoradoSafe D
- DelawareSafe D
- FloridaLean R
- GeorgiaLean D
- IdahoSafe R
- IllinoisSafe D
- IowaLean R
- KansasLean R
- KentuckySafe R
- LouisianaLikely R
- MaineLikely D
- MassachusettsSafe D
- MichiganLean D
- MinnesotaLikely D
- MississippiLikely R
- MontanaLikely R
- NebraskaLean R
- New HampshireLikely D
- New JerseySafe D
- New MexicoSafe D
- North CarolinaLikely D
- OhioTossup
- OklahomaSafe R
- OregonSafe D
- Rhode IslandSafe D
- South CarolinaLean R
- South DakotaSafe R
- TennesseeSafe R
- TexasTossup
- VirginiaSafe D
- West VirginiaSafe R
- WyomingSafe R
Republicans are rated ahead in 17, Democrats in 15, and 3 are a tossup
/
how to read · each line is how many races sat in that tier on the day.
Source: this site's model. Ratings are cut from the forecast's margins, not assigned by hand.
Gubernatorial
Governor · 2026
D18
R12
12
Safe D
3
Likely D
3
Lean D
6
Tossup
3
Lean R
2
Likely R
7
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DTossupLean RLikely RSafe R
how to read · the bar is the whole map, split by tier; each block's width is its share of the races.
6 Tossup races
hover a state for details
| unit | what the map says |
|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe R |
| Alaska | Tossup |
| Arizona | Lean D |
| Arkansas | Safe R |
| California | Safe D |
| Colorado | Safe D |
| Connecticut | Safe D |
| Florida | Lean R |
| Georgia | Lean D |
| Hawaii | Safe D |
| Idaho | Safe R |
| Illinois | Safe D |
| Iowa | Tossup |
| Kansas | Lean R |
| Maine | Safe D |
| Maryland | Safe D |
| Massachusetts | Safe D |
| Michigan | Tossup |
| Minnesota | Safe D |
| Nebraska | Likely R |
| Nevada | Tossup |
| New Hampshire | Tossup |
| New Mexico | Likely D |
| New York | Safe D |
| Ohio | Tossup |
| Oklahoma | Safe R |
| Oregon | Safe D |
| Pennsylvania | Likely D |
| Rhode Island | Safe D |
| South Carolina | Likely R |
| South Dakota | Safe R |
| Tennessee | Safe R |
| Texas | Lean R |
| Vermont | Likely D |
| Wisconsin | Lean D |
| Wyoming | Safe R |
every race, and where it is rated
- AlabamaSafe R
- AlaskaTossup
- ArizonaLean D
- ArkansasSafe R
- CaliforniaSafe D
- ColoradoSafe D
- ConnecticutSafe D
- FloridaLean R
- GeorgiaLean D
- HawaiiSafe D
- IdahoSafe R
- IllinoisSafe D
- IowaTossup
- KansasLean R
- MaineSafe D
- MarylandSafe D
- MassachusettsSafe D
- MichiganTossup
- MinnesotaSafe D
- NebraskaLikely R
- NevadaTossup
- New HampshireTossup
- New MexicoLikely D
- New YorkSafe D
- OhioTossup
- OklahomaSafe R
- OregonSafe D
- PennsylvaniaLikely D
- Rhode IslandSafe D
- South CarolinaLikely R
- South DakotaSafe R
- TennesseeSafe R
- TexasLean R
- VermontLikely D
- WisconsinLean D
- WyomingSafe R
Democrats are rated ahead in 18, Republicans in 12, and 6 are a tossup
/
how to read · each line is how many races sat in that tier on the day.
Source: this site's model. Ratings are cut from the forecast's margins, not assigned by hand.
Congress
120th Congress · 2026
D233
R179
193
Safe D
28
Likely D
12
Lean D
23
Tossup
33
Lean R
54
Likely R
92
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DTossupLean RLikely RSafe R
how to read · the bar is the whole map, split by tier; each block's width is its share of the races.
23 Tossup races
hover a district for details
·
every race, and where it is rated
- Alabama District 1Safe R
- Alabama District 2Safe D
- Alabama District 3Safe R
- Alabama District 4Safe R
- Alabama District 5Safe R
- Alabama District 6Safe R
- Alabama District 7Safe D
- Alaska At-LargeLean R
- Arizona District 1Lean D
- Arizona District 2Lean R
- Arizona District 3Safe D
- Arizona District 4Safe D
- Arizona District 5Likely R
- Arizona District 6Likely D
- Arizona District 7Safe D
- Arizona District 8Lean R
- Arizona District 9Safe R
- Arkansas District 1Safe R
- Arkansas District 2Lean R
- Arkansas District 3Safe R
- Arkansas District 4Safe R
- California District 1Safe D
- California District 10Safe D
- California District 11Safe D
- California District 12Safe D
- California District 13Safe D
- California District 14Safe D
- California District 15Safe D
- California District 16Safe D
- California District 17Safe D
- California District 18Safe D
- California District 19Safe D
- California District 2Safe D
- California District 20Safe R
- California District 21Safe D
- California District 22Likely D
- California District 23Lean R
- California District 24Safe D
- California District 25Safe D
- California District 26Safe D
- California District 27Safe D
- California District 28Safe D
- California District 29Safe D
- California District 3Safe D
- California District 30Safe D
- California District 31Safe D
- California District 32Safe D
- California District 33Safe D
- California District 34Safe D
- California District 35Safe D
- California District 36Safe D
- California District 37Safe D
- California District 38Safe D
- California District 39Safe D
- California District 4Safe D
- California District 40Tossup
- California District 41Safe D
- California District 42Safe D
- California District 43Safe D
- California District 44Safe D
- California District 45Safe D
- California District 46Safe D
- California District 47Safe D
- California District 48Likely D
- California District 49Safe D
- California District 5Likely R
- California District 50Safe D
- California District 51Safe D
- California District 52Safe D
- California District 6Safe D
- California District 7Safe D
- California District 8Safe D
- California District 9Safe D
- Colorado District 1Safe D
- Colorado District 2Safe D
- Colorado District 3Tossup
- Colorado District 4Likely R
- Colorado District 5Tossup
- Colorado District 6Safe D
- Colorado District 7Safe D
- Colorado District 8Likely D
- Connecticut District 1Safe D
- Connecticut District 2Safe D
- Connecticut District 3Safe D
- Connecticut District 4Safe D
- Connecticut District 5Safe D
- Delaware At-LargeSafe D
- Florida District 1Safe R
- Florida District 10Safe D
- Florida District 11Lean R
- Florida District 12Safe R
- Florida District 13Lean R
- Florida District 14Safe D
- Florida District 15Tossup
- Florida District 16Lean R
- Florida District 17Likely R
- Florida District 18Safe R
- Florida District 19Safe R
- Florida District 2Likely R
- Florida District 20Safe D
- Florida District 21Lean R
- Florida District 22Safe D
- Florida District 23Likely D
- Florida District 24Safe D
- Florida District 25Safe D
- Florida District 26Safe R
- Florida District 27Tossup
- Florida District 28Likely R
- Florida District 3Likely R
- Florida District 4Tossup
- Florida District 5Likely R
- Florida District 6Safe R
- Florida District 7Lean R
- Florida District 8Likely R
- Florida District 9Safe D
- Georgia District 1Lean R
- Georgia District 10Likely R
- Georgia District 11Likely R
- Georgia District 12Lean R
- Georgia District 13Safe D
- Georgia District 14Safe R
- Georgia District 2Safe D
- Georgia District 3Safe R
- Georgia District 4Safe D
- Georgia District 5Safe D
- Georgia District 6Safe D
- Georgia District 7Likely R
- Georgia District 8Safe R
- Georgia District 9Safe R
- Hawaii District 1Safe D
- Hawaii District 2Safe D
- Idaho District 1Safe R
- Idaho District 2Safe R
- Illinois District 1Safe D
- Illinois District 10Safe D
- Illinois District 11Safe D
- Illinois District 12Safe R
- Illinois District 13Safe D
- Illinois District 14Likely D
- Illinois District 15Safe R
- Illinois District 16Likely R
- Illinois District 17Likely D
- Illinois District 2Safe D
- Illinois District 3Safe D
- Illinois District 4Safe D
- Illinois District 5Safe D
- Illinois District 6Likely D
- Illinois District 7Safe D
- Illinois District 8Safe D
- Illinois District 9Safe D
- Indiana District 1Likely D
- Indiana District 2Safe R
- Indiana District 3Safe R
- Indiana District 4Safe R
- Indiana District 5Likely R
- Indiana District 6Safe R
- Indiana District 7Safe D
- Indiana District 8Safe R
- Indiana District 9Safe R
- Iowa District 1Tossup
- Iowa District 2Tossup
- Iowa District 3Lean D
- Iowa District 4Safe R
- Kansas District 1Safe R
- Kansas District 2Likely R
- Kansas District 3Likely D
- Kansas District 4Likely R
- Kentucky District 1Safe R
- Kentucky District 2Safe R
- Kentucky District 3Safe D
- Kentucky District 4Safe R
- Kentucky District 5Safe R
- Kentucky District 6Lean R
- Louisiana District 1Safe R
- Louisiana District 2Safe D
- Louisiana District 3Safe R
- Louisiana District 4Safe R
- Louisiana District 5Safe R
- Louisiana District 6Safe D
- Maine District 1Safe D
- Maine District 2Tossup
- Maryland District 1Likely R
- Maryland District 2Safe D
- Maryland District 3Safe D
- Maryland District 4Safe D
- Maryland District 5Safe D
- Maryland District 6Safe D
- Maryland District 7Safe D
- Maryland District 8Safe D
- Massachusetts District 1Safe D
- Massachusetts District 2Safe D
- Massachusetts District 3Safe D
- Massachusetts District 4Safe D
- Massachusetts District 5Safe D
- Massachusetts District 6Safe D
- Massachusetts District 7Safe D
- Massachusetts District 8Safe D
- Massachusetts District 9Safe D
- Michigan District 1Likely R
- Michigan District 10Lean D
- Michigan District 11Safe D
- Michigan District 12Safe D
- Michigan District 13Safe D
- Michigan District 2Safe R
- Michigan District 3Safe D
- Michigan District 4Lean D
- Michigan District 5Safe R
- Michigan District 6Safe D
- Michigan District 7Likely D
- Michigan District 8Likely D
- Michigan District 9Safe R
- Minnesota District 1Lean R
- Minnesota District 2Safe D
- Minnesota District 3Safe D
- Minnesota District 4Safe D
- Minnesota District 5Safe D
- Minnesota District 6Likely R
- Minnesota District 7Safe R
- Minnesota District 8Lean R
- Mississippi District 1Safe R
- Mississippi District 2Safe D
- Mississippi District 3Safe R
- Mississippi District 4Safe R
- Missouri District 1Safe D
- Missouri District 2Tossup
- Missouri District 3Likely R
- Missouri District 4Likely R
- Missouri District 5Likely R
- Missouri District 6Safe R
- Missouri District 7Safe R
- Missouri District 8Safe R
- Montana District 1Tossup
- Montana District 2Safe R
- Nebraska District 1Lean R
- Nebraska District 2Likely D
- Nebraska District 3Safe R
- Nevada District 1Safe D
- Nevada District 2Lean R
- Nevada District 3Likely D
- Nevada District 4Safe D
- New Hampshire District 1Likely D
- New Hampshire District 2Likely D
- New Jersey District 1Safe D
- New Jersey District 10Safe D
- New Jersey District 11Safe D
- New Jersey District 12Safe D
- New Jersey District 2Lean R
- New Jersey District 3Safe D
- New Jersey District 4Safe R
- New Jersey District 5Likely D
- New Jersey District 6Safe D
- New Jersey District 7Likely D
- New Jersey District 8Safe D
- New Jersey District 9Likely D
- New Mexico District 1Safe D
- New Mexico District 2Likely D
- New Mexico District 3Safe D
- New York District 1Tossup
- New York District 10Safe D
- New York District 11Safe R
- New York District 12Safe D
- New York District 13Safe D
- New York District 14Safe D
- New York District 15Safe D
- New York District 16Safe D
- New York District 17Likely D
- New York District 18Likely D
- New York District 19Likely D
- New York District 2Lean R
- New York District 20Safe D
- New York District 21Likely R
- New York District 22Safe D
- New York District 23Likely R
- New York District 24Likely R
- New York District 25Safe D
- New York District 26Safe D
- New York District 3Lean D
- New York District 4Likely D
- New York District 5Safe D
- New York District 6Safe D
- New York District 7Safe D
- New York District 8Safe D
- New York District 9Safe D
- North Carolina District 1Tossup
- North Carolina District 10Likely R
- North Carolina District 11Tossup
- North Carolina District 12Safe D
- North Carolina District 13Lean R
- North Carolina District 14Lean R
- North Carolina District 2Safe D
- North Carolina District 3Lean R
- North Carolina District 4Safe D
- North Carolina District 5Likely R
- North Carolina District 6Likely R
- North Carolina District 7Lean R
- North Carolina District 8Likely R
- North Carolina District 9Lean R
- North Dakota At-LargeSafe R
- Ohio District 1Lean D
- Ohio District 10Tossup
- Ohio District 11Safe D
- Ohio District 12Safe R
- Ohio District 13Likely D
- Ohio District 14Likely R
- Ohio District 15Tossup
- Ohio District 2Safe R
- Ohio District 3Safe D
- Ohio District 4Safe R
- Ohio District 5Likely R
- Ohio District 6Safe R
- Ohio District 7Tossup
- Ohio District 8Lean R
- Ohio District 9Tossup
- Oklahoma District 1Likely R
- Oklahoma District 2Safe R
- Oklahoma District 3Safe R
- Oklahoma District 4Safe R
- Oklahoma District 5Likely R
- Oregon District 1Safe D
- Oregon District 2Safe R
- Oregon District 3Safe D
- Oregon District 4Safe D
- Oregon District 5Safe D
- Oregon District 6Safe D
- Pennsylvania District 1Likely D
- Pennsylvania District 10Lean D
- Pennsylvania District 11Likely R
- Pennsylvania District 12Safe D
- Pennsylvania District 13Safe R
- Pennsylvania District 14Safe R
- Pennsylvania District 15Safe R
- Pennsylvania District 16Likely R
- Pennsylvania District 17Likely D
- Pennsylvania District 2Safe D
- Pennsylvania District 3Safe D
- Pennsylvania District 4Safe D
- Pennsylvania District 5Safe D
- Pennsylvania District 6Safe D
- Pennsylvania District 7Lean D
- Pennsylvania District 8Tossup
- Pennsylvania District 9Safe R
- Rhode Island District 1Safe D
- Rhode Island District 2Safe D
- South Carolina District 1Lean R
- South Carolina District 2Lean R
- South Carolina District 3Safe R
- South Carolina District 4Likely R
- South Carolina District 5Likely R
- South Carolina District 6Safe D
- South Carolina District 7Safe R
- South Dakota At-LargeSafe R
- Tennessee District 1Safe R
- Tennessee District 2Safe R
- Tennessee District 3Safe R
- Tennessee District 4Safe R
- Tennessee District 5Likely R
- Tennessee District 6Safe R
- Tennessee District 7Likely R
- Tennessee District 8Safe R
- Tennessee District 9Safe D
- Texas District 1Safe R
- Texas District 10Likely R
- Texas District 11Safe R
- Texas District 12Safe R
- Texas District 13Safe R
- Texas District 14Safe R
- Texas District 15Tossup
- Texas District 16Safe D
- Texas District 17Likely R
- Texas District 18Safe D
- Texas District 19Safe R
- Texas District 2Likely R
- Texas District 20Safe D
- Texas District 21Likely R
- Texas District 22Likely R
- Texas District 23Tossup
- Texas District 24Lean R
- Texas District 25Safe R
- Texas District 26Likely R
- Texas District 27Lean R
- Texas District 28Lean D
- Texas District 29Safe D
- Texas District 3Likely R
- Texas District 30Safe D
- Texas District 31Likely R
- Texas District 32Lean R
- Texas District 33Safe D
- Texas District 34Likely D
- Texas District 35Lean D
- Texas District 36Likely R
- Texas District 37Safe D
- Texas District 38Likely R
- Texas District 4Safe R
- Texas District 5Likely R
- Texas District 6Likely R
- Texas District 7Safe D
- Texas District 8Safe R
- Texas District 9Lean R
- Utah District 1Safe D
- Utah District 2Safe R
- Utah District 3Safe R
- Utah District 4Safe R
- Vermont At-LargeSafe D
- Virginia District 1Safe R
- Virginia District 10Safe D
- Virginia District 11Safe D
- Virginia District 2Safe D
- Virginia District 3Safe D
- Virginia District 4Safe D
- Virginia District 5Safe D
- Virginia District 6Safe D
- Virginia District 7Safe D
- Virginia District 8Safe D
- Virginia District 9Safe D
- Washington District 1Safe D
- Washington District 10Safe D
- Washington District 2Safe D
- Washington District 3Lean D
- Washington District 4Likely R
- Washington District 5Tossup
- Washington District 6Safe D
- Washington District 7Safe D
- Washington District 8Safe D
- Washington District 9Safe D
- West Virginia District 1Safe R
- West Virginia District 2Safe R
- Wisconsin District 1Lean D
- Wisconsin District 2Safe D
- Wisconsin District 3Tossup
- Wisconsin District 4Safe D
- Wisconsin District 5Likely R
- Wisconsin District 6Lean R
- Wisconsin District 7Likely R
- Wisconsin District 8Lean R
- Wyoming At-LargeSafe R
Democrats are rated ahead in 233, Republicans in 179, and 23 are a tossup
/
how to read · each line is how many races sat in that tier on the day.
Source: this site's model. Ratings are cut from the forecast's margins, not assigned by hand.