Theo·Election Forecast '26

The 2026 forecast

Senate

Class II · 2026
D53.7%
R46.3%
dem
51
/
rep
49
Eight runs in ten land Democrats between 47 and 55
more rep.simulated outcomesmore dem.
how to read · each bar is a share of ten thousand simulated elections at that seat count; the ink rule is the majority.
ALAKCOFLGAKSMEMAMNNCOKSDTXWYWVILNMARIAKYMIMSMTNHOHORTNVANESCIDLA
hover a state for details, click to zoom into counties
Every unit on the map above, and what its fill says
unitwhat the map says
AlabamaR+21.3
Alaskainside two points
ArkansasR+21.9
ColoradoD+22.3
DelawareD+25.2
FloridaR+6.2
GeorgiaD+7.1
IdahoR+22.8
IllinoisD+20.6
IowaR+3.1
KansasR+5.0
KentuckyR+17.0
LouisianaR+12.3
MaineD+11.7
MassachusettsD+31.0
MichiganD+5.9
MinnesotaD+9.1
MississippiR+13.8
MontanaR+10.6
NebraskaR+4.7
New HampshireD+9.1
New JerseyD+15.5
New MexicoD+16.2
North CarolinaD+10.5
Ohioinside two points
OklahomaR+24.7
OregonD+25.0
Rhode IslandD+23.8
South CarolinaR+7.4
South DakotaR+21.2
TennesseeR+20.6
Texasinside two points
VirginiaD+16.1
West VirginiaR+33.6
WyomingR+38.0
Democrats hold the Senate in 54% of runs
/
how to read · each line is a party's daily chance of control; the ink rule is even odds.
Source: VoteHub polls API and past results, run through this site's model. Nothing is projected past the last day with polling behind it.

Gubernatorial

Governor · 2026
D79.7%
R20.3%
dem
27
/
rep
23
Eight runs in ten land Democrats between 23 and 30
more rep.simulated outcomesmore dem.
how to read · each bar is a share of ten thousand simulated elections at that seat count; the ink rule is the majority.
ALAKAZCOFLGAKSMEMAMNOKPASDTXWYCTILNMARCAHIIAMDMINHNYOHORTNWINESCIDNVVT
hover a state for details, click to zoom into counties
Every unit on the map above, and what its fill says
unitwhat the map says
AlabamaR+22.2
Alaskainside two points
ArizonaD+4.7
ArkansasR+23.2
CaliforniaD+28.0
ColoradoD+21.0
ConnecticutD+23.3
FloridaR+6.4
GeorgiaD+7.4
HawaiiD+29.6
IdahoR+29.8
IllinoisD+21.0
Iowainside two points
KansasR+6.4
MaineD+16.3
MarylandD+37.7
MassachusettsD+29.3
Michiganinside two points
MinnesotaD+18.7
NebraskaR+11.2
NevadaD+2.3
New Hampshireinside two points
New MexicoD+14.8
New YorkD+16.5
Ohioinside two points
OklahomaR+26.0
OregonD+23.7
PennsylvaniaD+13.6
Rhode IslandD+22.5
South CarolinaR+9.6
South DakotaR+21.6
TennesseeR+24.6
TexasR+7.0
VermontD+12.5
WisconsinD+6.2
WyomingR+39.0
Democrats hold the governorships in 80% of runs
/
how to read · each line is a party's daily chance of control; the ink rule is even odds.
Source: VoteHub polls API and past results, run through this site's model. Nothing is projected past the last day with polling behind it.

Congress

120th Congress · 2026
D97.8%
R2.2%
dem
248
/
rep
187
Eight runs in ten land Democrats between 218 and 266
more rep.simulated outcomesmore dem.
how to read · each bar is a share of ten thousand simulated elections at that seat count; the ink rule is the majority.
hover a district for details
·
Democrats hold the House in 98% of runs
/
how to read · each line is a party's daily chance of control; the ink rule is even odds.
Source: VoteHub polls API and past results, run through this site's model. Nothing is projected past the last day with polling behind it.
Updated  Jul 28, 2026·Simulations  10,000·Polls  124·Days to election  97