The swingometer
Senate
Class II · 2026
D54.0%
R46.0%
national two-party vote
D54.0
R46.0
marginD+8.0
dem
49
/
rep
51
Republicans take 51 of 100 on a national vote of D+8.0
how to read · move the national vote and every state moves with it from its own baseline; the fill leans to whoever wins it.
hover a state for details
| unit | what the map says |
|---|---|
| AK | R+3.6 |
| AL | R+21.8 |
| AR | R+22.4 |
| CO | D+21.9 |
| DE | D+24.8 |
| FL | R+5.0 |
| GA | D+8.3 |
| IA | R+4.2 |
| ID | R+29.0 |
| IL | D+20.2 |
| KS | R+5.5 |
| KY | R+21.9 |
| LA | R+12.8 |
| MA | D+34.7 |
| ME | D+17.1 |
| MI | D+8.0 |
| MN | D+14.4 |
| MS | R+14.2 |
| MT | R+11.1 |
| NC | D+6.5 |
| NE | R+10.3 |
| NH | D+12.9 |
| NJ | D+15.0 |
| NM | D+15.7 |
| OH | inside two points |
| OK | R+25.2 |
| OR | D+24.6 |
| RI | D+23.3 |
| SC | R+8.8 |
| SD | R+20.7 |
| TN | R+21.1 |
| TX | R+4.4 |
| VA | D+15.6 |
| WV | R+34.0 |
| WY | R+38.4 |
Source: this site's model, re-run at the vote share you set. The baselines are the same ones the forecast uses.
Gubernatorial
Governor · 2026
D54.0%
R46.0%
national two-party vote
D54.0
R46.0
marginD+8.0
dem
27
/
rep
23
Democrats take 27 of 50 on a national vote of D+8.0
how to read · move the national vote and every state moves with it from its own baseline; the fill leans to whoever wins it.
hover a state for details
| unit | what the map says |
|---|---|
| AK | R+3.6 |
| AL | R+21.8 |
| AR | R+22.4 |
| AZ | D+4.2 |
| CA | D+28.8 |
| CO | D+21.9 |
| CT | D+24.1 |
| FL | R+5.0 |
| GA | D+8.3 |
| HI | D+30.5 |
| IA | R+4.2 |
| ID | R+29.0 |
| IL | D+20.2 |
| KS | R+5.5 |
| MA | D+34.7 |
| MD | D+38.5 |
| ME | D+17.1 |
| MI | D+8.0 |
| MN | D+14.4 |
| NE | R+10.3 |
| NH | D+12.9 |
| NM | D+15.7 |
| NV | D+6.2 |
| NY | D+20.1 |
| OH | inside two points |
| OK | R+25.2 |
| OR | D+24.6 |
| PA | D+7.9 |
| RI | D+23.3 |
| SC | R+8.8 |
| SD | R+20.7 |
| TN | R+21.1 |
| TX | R+4.4 |
| VT | D+41.5 |
| WI | D+8.6 |
| WY | R+38.4 |
Source: this site's model, re-run at the vote share you set. The baselines are the same ones the forecast uses.
Congress
120th Congress · 2026
D54.0%
R46.0%
national two-party vote
D54.0
R46.0
marginD+8.0
dem
236
/
rep
199
Democrats take 236 of 435 on a national vote of D+8.0
how to read · move the national vote and every state moves with it from its own baseline; the fill leans to whoever wins it.
hover a state for details
Source: this site's model, re-run at the vote share you set. The baselines are the same ones the forecast uses.