Theo
·
Election Forecast '26
Model
·
Ratings
·
Florida
·
Polls
·
Swingometer
·
Past Elections
·
State Legs.
·
Projects
·
Methodology
%
☾
Donate
Senate
Class II · 2026
D
54.4
%
R
45.6
%
National Two-Party Vote
D
54.4
R
45.6
Margin
D+8.7
Dem.
49
/
Rep.
51
Hover a state for details
Gubernatorial
Governor · 2026
D
54.4
%
R
45.6
%
National Two-Party Vote
D
54.4
R
45.6
Margin
D+8.7
Dem.
27
/
Rep.
23
Hover a state for details
Congress
120th Congress · 2026
D
54.4
%
R
45.6
%
National Two-Party Vote
D
54.4
R
45.6
Margin
D+8.7
Dem.
242
/
Rep.
193
Hover a state for details
Model
Ratings
Florida Redistricting
Polls
Swingometer
Past Elections
State Legs.
Methodology
Forecast
Nowcast
Senate
Class II - 2026
⛶
59.5
40.5
D
52
R
48
← US
Click a state to zoom in
Senate
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
⛶
86.1
13.9
D
29
R
21
← US
Click a state to zoom in
Governor
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
⛶
99.5
0.5
D
249
R
186
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ATL
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Congress
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Forecast →
570 days • precomputed 10,000 sims/day
Forecast
Nowcast
Senate
Class II - 2026
Senate
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
Governor
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
US
State…
|
NYC
LA
CHI
DFW
More…
HOU
ATL
DC
PHX
MIA
Congress
Detailed
Face-off
Rating counts
President
59th Presidential Election
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
President
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Senate
Class I & III - 2024
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Senate
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Governor
Gubernatorial - 2024
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Governor
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Congress
119th Congress - 2024
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Congress
Win Prob
Seats
Win probability
Senate
Class II - 2026
54.4
45.6
National Two-Party Vote
D
54.4
R
45.6
Margin
D+8.7
D
49
R
51
Gubernatorial
Gubernatorial - 2026
54.4
45.6
National Two-Party Vote
D
54.4
R
45.6
Margin
D+8.7
D
27
R
23
Congress
120th Congress - 2026
54.4
45.6
National Two-Party Vote
D
54.4
R
45.6
Margin
D+8.7
D
242
R
193
-->
House
Senate
Split
Sync zoom
State House
Lower chambers — district baselines
—
—
Model
Ratings
D
—
|
R
—
Hover a district
State House Map
District baselines
US
State…
Forecast
Nowcast
Old map · Forecast
Pre-redistricting · national GB
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
New map · Forecast
Post-redistricting · national GB
50.0
50.0
D
—
R
—
Old map · Swingometer
Pre-redistricting · custom inputs
—
—
D
—
R
—
Hisp D
—
Hisp R
—
D
—
R
—
New map · Swingometer
Post-redistricting · custom inputs
—
—
D
—
R
—
Hisp D
—
Hisp R
—
D
—
R
—
Approval / Gen Ballot
50.0
50.0
Senate
Class II - 2026
Governor
Gubernatorial - 2026
D
—
R
—
D
—
R
—
D
—
R
—
Generic Ballot
Scatter plot · moving average
Gen Ballot
Approval
Raw %
Click a state to see polls
Raw %
Click a state to see polls
Raw %