methodology

how the maps are drawn · what each number counts

the lines

an election is drawn only on the precinct lines it was tabulated on. the 1996 to 2010 returns are on the 2012 VTDs, as the Texas Legislative Council tabulated them; 2012 to 2024 are on the 2024 VTDs; the early vote of 2020 and 2022 and the March 2026 primary are on lines of their own.

precincts are never compared across those lines. two elections on different lines compare by county or by district, and the page says so where it closes the precinct level.

counties and districts

the 254 counties are the same in every year, and a county is the exact sum of its precincts.

a district plan is offered only when every seat is drawn and every precinct is placed, and it carries only the elections on its own precinct lines. where the returns name a precinct’s district, that is its district; a precinct they never name is placed by the plan as published, or by the district it shares the most boundary with.

congress has two plans on the 2012 lines: five districts (15, 21, 23, 25 and 28) were redrawn by court order in 2006, so 2004 is on the 2003 plan and 2006 to 2010 on the 2006 plan. on the 2012 lines a chamber’s own race is counted in the seat each precinct’s own return names.

colour

a precinct, county or district is coloured by its plurality winner, deeper by the margin over the runner-up as a share of all votes: 0 to 4 points, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, and 32 and up. a unit with no return is ruled, with no colour, and a tie is grey. candidates under 1% of the vote are pooled as other.

third parties

the Council’s precinct files for 1996 to 2004 carry few or no third-party candidates; from 2006 they carry all of them. for the earlier years the footnotes give the Secretary of State’s statewide totals. the gap is never filled from other years.

the census

the census view is the U.S. Census Bureau’s P.L. 94-171 counts and ACS 5-year estimates, on the same lines as the election beside it.

the forecasts

the Texas forecast is a projection of the 2026 elections on the precincts of the 2024 lines, summed to counties and to the districts of the 2026 plans. a race is coloured by its forecast margin in the same bands, and a chamber’s district by the rating its chance gives: 50 to 60 tossup, 60 to 75 lean, 75 to 90 likely, 90 to 100 safe. the chance of a majority is simulated.

the national forecast covers the U.S. senate, the governors and the U.S. house, and is updated every night. its ranges hold 95% of the model’s outcomes; the average is the mean across them.

the two are made separately, so the same race can read differently on each.