by race
the 2026 Texas forecast · 8 statewide races · 219 seats in three chambers
each race has a page of its own, and so has each district. the maps are on the forecast page.
statewide
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 49.8% | D+2.4 | 10,664,085 | |
| governor | abbott 51.3% | R+4.6 | 10,664,065 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 51.7% | R+3.4 | 10,411,947 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 52.0% | R+3.9 | 10,411,944 | |
| attorney general | middleton 52.4% | R+4.9 | 10,411,945 | |
| comptroller | huffines 53.6% | R+7.3 | 10,411,947 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 53.3% | R+6.6 | 10,411,949 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 53.4% | R+6.9 | 10,411,949 |
the chambers
| chamber | forecast | average seats | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. house | republican majority 97% | 12.9 D, 25.1 R | 38 seats | |
| state house | republican majority 73% | 72.0 D, 78.0 R | 150 seats | |
| state senate | republican majority >99% | 11.7 D, 19.3 R | 31 seats |
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026