forecasts · by race
land commissioner, 2026
R+6.6 · likely R · buckingham 85% to win
candidate party vote votes chance
flores democrat 46.7% 4,863,716 15% buckingham republican 53.3% 5,548,234 85%
the 2026 forecast of the race for land commissioner in Texas, Flores against Buckingham, counted on the two alone. open it on the forecast map , precinct by precinct.
by group of voters
group forecast lead votes
white voters buckingham 65.7% R+31.4 6,487,584 hispanic voters flores 60.1% D+20.3 2,044,574 black voters flores 88.0% D+76.0 1,196,098 other voters flores 52.3% D+4.5 683,680
by county
county forecast lead votes
anderson buckingham 79.2% R+58.4 17,978 andrews buckingham 84.0% R+68.0 5,572 angelina buckingham 74.7% R+49.4 31,770 aransas buckingham 75.3% R+50.5 12,126 archer buckingham 88.7% R+77.4 4,850 armstrong buckingham 91.1% R+82.2 1,057 atascosa buckingham 65.8% R+31.6 16,827 austin buckingham 79.7% R+59.4 14,317 bailey buckingham 79.5% R+59.0 1,601 bandera buckingham 78.9% R+57.7 12,668 bastrop buckingham 56.4% R+12.9 36,505 baylor buckingham 87.7% R+75.3 1,564 bee buckingham 64.4% R+28.8 8,034 bell buckingham 55.4% R+10.8 118,746 bexar flores 60.2% D+20.3 684,996 blanco buckingham 74.9% R+49.7 7,990 borden buckingham 96.4% R+92.9 365 bosque buckingham 81.5% R+63.0 8,987 bowie buckingham 73.9% R+47.9 33,882 brazoria buckingham 56.5% R+12.9 147,866 brazos buckingham 60.3% R+20.6 84,695 brewster buckingham 53.8% R+7.5 4,223 briscoe buckingham 88.9% R+77.9 700 brooks flores 64.7% D+29.5 2,116 brown buckingham 85.3% R+70.7 15,789 burleson buckingham 80.1% R+60.1 8,722 burnet buckingham 76.4% R+52.8 26,355 caldwell buckingham 53.5% R+7.0 14,356 calhoun buckingham 72.4% R+44.7 7,255 callahan buckingham 87.2% R+74.3 6,563 cameron flores 55.5% D+11.0 105,298 camp buckingham 75.5% R+51.0 4,902 carson buckingham 89.1% R+78.3 2,960 cass buckingham 82.4% R+64.9 13,306 castro buckingham 77.8% R+55.6 1,849 chambers buckingham 80.8% R+61.6 23,235 cherokee buckingham 80.3% R+60.7 19,076 childress buckingham 86.6% R+73.2 2,101 clay buckingham 88.4% R+76.8 5,563 cochran buckingham 81.5% R+62.9 815 coke buckingham 87.5% R+75.0 1,715 coleman buckingham 88.2% R+76.3 3,892 collin buckingham 51.2% R+2.3 469,923 collingsworth buckingham 87.7% R+75.3 1,126 colorado buckingham 77.1% R+54.2 9,317 comal buckingham 70.6% R+41.1 96,522 comanche buckingham 84.7% R+69.3 6,144 concho buckingham 84.3% R+68.7 1,116 cooke buckingham 81.6% R+63.2 19,101 coryell buckingham 67.9% R+35.8 21,737 cottle buckingham 85.4% R+70.7 606 crane buckingham 83.7% R+67.4 1,244 crockett buckingham 73.9% R+47.8 1,274 crosby buckingham 74.5% R+49.0 1,721 culberson buckingham 51.0% R+2.0 693 dallam buckingham 87.8% R+75.7 1,323 dallas flores 65.9% D+31.7 769,771 dawson buckingham 78.2% R+56.4 3,206 deaf smith buckingham 73.5% R+47.0 3,935 delta buckingham 82.5% R+64.9 2,499 denton buckingham 53.1% R+6.3 414,379 dewitt buckingham 81.2% R+62.4 7,289 dickens buckingham 84.2% R+68.4 925 dimmit flores 61.8% D+23.7 2,946 donley buckingham 88.2% R+76.4 1,577 duval flores 57.2% D+14.4 3,810 eastland buckingham 87.3% R+74.6 7,826 ector buckingham 72.7% R+45.5 39,230 edwards buckingham 83.2% R+66.5 911 el paso flores 63.3% D+26.5 220,645 ellis buckingham 63.0% R+25.9 91,824 erath buckingham 82.2% R+64.3 17,094 falls buckingham 70.9% R+41.8 5,835 fannin buckingham 81.5% R+63.1 15,340 fayette buckingham 79.5% R+59.0 12,522 fisher buckingham 79.3% R+58.5 1,701 floyd buckingham 78.7% R+57.4 1,928 foard buckingham 82.0% R+64.0 511 fort bend flores 56.0% D+12.1 320,347 franklin buckingham 83.4% R+66.8 4,996 freestone buckingham 81.8% R+63.5 8,408 frio buckingham 53.3% R+6.5 4,347 gaines buckingham 90.4% R+80.9 5,988 galveston buckingham 61.0% R+22.0 146,500 garza buckingham 84.8% R+69.7 1,468 gillespie buckingham 79.4% R+58.8 15,552 glasscock buckingham 94.0% R+87.9 628 goliad buckingham 77.3% R+54.6 3,699 gonzales buckingham 74.4% R+48.8 7,108 gray buckingham 87.7% R+75.5 7,051 grayson buckingham 75.6% R+51.3 61,234 gregg buckingham 70.1% R+40.3 43,248 grimes buckingham 78.5% R+57.1 13,083 guadalupe buckingham 61.3% R+22.6 77,818 hale buckingham 76.2% R+52.4 8,516 hall buckingham 85.5% R+71.0 1,063 hamilton buckingham 84.4% R+68.8 4,213 hansford buckingham 91.9% R+83.7 1,866 hardeman buckingham 83.8% R+67.6 1,317 hardin buckingham 86.9% R+73.8 26,466 harris flores 57.3% D+14.6 1,411,002 harrison buckingham 75.1% R+50.2 28,117 hartley buckingham 90.9% R+81.9 1,902 haskell buckingham 83.3% R+66.6 2,088 hays flores 56.2% D+12.4 116,253 hemphill buckingham 87.2% R+74.5 1,512 henderson buckingham 79.9% R+59.9 35,911 hidalgo flores 57.0% D+14.0 194,037 hill buckingham 80.0% R+60.0 15,642 hockley buckingham 81.8% R+63.5 7,439 hood buckingham 81.3% R+62.7 34,278 hopkins buckingham 80.7% R+61.4 15,719 houston buckingham 76.9% R+53.8 8,682 howard buckingham 78.8% R+57.5 8,853 hudspeth buckingham 69.4% R+38.7 924 hunt buckingham 75.4% R+50.7 43,420 hutchinson buckingham 87.8% R+75.5 7,658 irion buckingham 85.5% R+71.0 814 jack buckingham 89.5% R+78.9 3,953 jackson buckingham 83.4% R+66.9 5,917 jasper buckingham 82.7% R+65.3 14,844 jeff davis buckingham 59.3% R+18.6 1,070 jefferson buckingham 52.6% R+5.2 78,419 jim hogg flores 64.4% D+28.7 1,415 jim wells buckingham 51.0% R+2.0 11,978 johnson buckingham 73.0% R+46.0 74,789 jones buckingham 84.2% R+68.3 6,448 karnes buckingham 74.8% R+49.6 4,674 kaufman buckingham 60.8% R+21.7 63,789 kendall buckingham 76.4% R+52.8 27,556 kenedy buckingham 63.7% R+27.3 133 kent buckingham 86.5% R+73.1 423 kerr buckingham 75.4% R+50.7 26,390 kimble buckingham 86.9% R+73.8 2,243 king buckingham 96.0% R+92.1 129 kinney buckingham 69.8% R+39.7 1,295 kleberg flores 50.1% D+0.2 9,137 knox buckingham 80.9% R+61.8 1,285 la salle buckingham 50.2% R+0.4 1,927 lamar buckingham 79.0% R+58.1 19,869 lamb buckingham 80.9% R+61.8 3,829 lampasas buckingham 78.4% R+56.9 10,445 lavaca buckingham 86.4% R+72.8 9,870 lee buckingham 79.0% R+57.9 7,861 leon buckingham 87.3% R+74.6 8,480 liberty buckingham 78.6% R+57.1 28,997 limestone buckingham 76.9% R+53.8 8,458 lipscomb buckingham 88.8% R+77.6 1,170 live oak buckingham 82.5% R+65.1 4,758 llano buckingham 79.9% R+59.7 12,860 loving buckingham 80.6% R+61.2 87 lubbock buckingham 68.2% R+36.4 115,472 lynn buckingham 84.6% R+69.3 2,369 madison buckingham 80.8% R+61.5 5,079 marion buckingham 76.3% R+52.6 4,386 martin buckingham 86.1% R+72.2 1,927 mason buckingham 81.9% R+63.8 2,373 matagorda buckingham 72.4% R+44.7 12,331 maverick flores 52.4% D+4.8 13,284 mcculloch buckingham 85.0% R+70.0 3,294 mclennan buckingham 63.3% R+26.5 93,114 mcmullen buckingham 89.0% R+78.1 451 medina buckingham 67.8% R+35.6 22,780 menard buckingham 80.3% R+60.5 975 midland buckingham 78.3% R+56.7 54,129 milam buckingham 77.0% R+53.9 10,342 mills buckingham 87.0% R+73.9 2,582 mitchell buckingham 83.8% R+67.6 2,317 montague buckingham 87.3% R+74.7 10,421 montgomery buckingham 70.6% R+41.3 286,682 moore buckingham 80.2% R+60.4 4,894 morris buckingham 74.6% R+49.3 5,049 motley buckingham 93.4% R+86.8 609 nacogdoches buckingham 68.2% R+36.5 23,822 navarro buckingham 73.2% R+46.5 18,518 newton buckingham 82.8% R+65.6 5,358 nolan buckingham 76.5% R+53.0 4,712 nueces buckingham 50.9% R+1.8 111,192 ochiltree buckingham 89.7% R+79.5 2,818 oldham buckingham 90.3% R+80.5 917 orange buckingham 82.2% R+64.4 33,843 palo pinto buckingham 81.6% R+63.2 12,448 panola buckingham 82.6% R+65.1 10,697 parker buckingham 81.4% R+62.8 85,262 parmer buckingham 83.6% R+67.2 2,324 pecos buckingham 67.6% R+35.1 3,798 polk buckingham 78.1% R+56.3 22,635 potter buckingham 70.4% R+40.9 29,537 presidio flores 68.0% D+36.0 1,798 rains buckingham 85.0% R+69.9 6,141 randall buckingham 78.7% R+57.4 62,723 reagan buckingham 81.7% R+63.4 874 real buckingham 82.0% R+64.0 1,834 red river buckingham 79.8% R+59.6 5,392 reeves buckingham 61.2% R+22.5 2,998 refugio buckingham 66.4% R+32.8 2,816 roberts buckingham 96.3% R+92.7 541 robertson buckingham 74.8% R+49.5 7,604 rockwall buckingham 67.8% R+35.6 58,252 runnels buckingham 86.3% R+72.6 3,793 rusk buckingham 78.5% R+57.1 20,088 sabine buckingham 88.7% R+77.5 5,243 san augustine buckingham 78.2% R+56.3 3,472 san jacinto buckingham 81.1% R+62.2 11,901 san patricio buckingham 63.8% R+27.5 23,485 san saba buckingham 87.0% R+74.0 2,535 schleicher buckingham 79.8% R+59.6 1,027 scurry buckingham 84.4% R+68.9 5,246 shackelford buckingham 89.6% R+79.1 1,628 shelby buckingham 82.0% R+63.9 9,312 sherman buckingham 90.2% R+80.5 839 smith buckingham 71.5% R+42.9 96,267 somervell buckingham 83.0% R+66.1 4,950 starr flores 52.8% D+5.6 13,002 stephens buckingham 87.4% R+74.8 3,516 sterling buckingham 90.5% R+80.9 582 stonewall buckingham 82.9% R+65.9 672 sutton buckingham 81.2% R+62.4 1,303 swisher buckingham 79.1% R+58.2 2,082 tarrant flores 51.1% D+2.1 755,847 taylor buckingham 72.7% R+45.5 51,541 terrell buckingham 75.7% R+51.4 366 terry buckingham 80.1% R+60.2 3,111 throckmorton buckingham 90.8% R+81.5 847 titus buckingham 75.7% R+51.4 9,471 tom green buckingham 71.1% R+42.3 42,004 travis flores 73.5% D+47.1 533,268 trinity buckingham 81.9% R+63.8 6,878 tyler buckingham 85.6% R+71.3 8,985 upshur buckingham 84.5% R+69.1 18,616 upton buckingham 85.7% R+71.3 1,176 uvalde buckingham 60.6% R+21.3 8,865 val verde buckingham 55.6% R+11.2 13,087 van zandt buckingham 85.9% R+71.7 26,356 victoria buckingham 69.3% R+38.5 32,553 walker buckingham 68.1% R+36.2 23,262 waller buckingham 60.9% R+21.7 25,319 ward buckingham 79.2% R+58.5 3,462 washington buckingham 76.1% R+52.2 17,005 webb flores 58.3% D+16.6 58,218 wharton buckingham 73.5% R+47.1 15,278 wheeler buckingham 91.1% R+82.2 2,127 wichita buckingham 70.7% R+41.4 41,225 wilbarger buckingham 78.0% R+55.9 4,135 willacy flores 58.3% D+16.6 4,953 williamson flores 51.8% D+3.6 282,084 wilson buckingham 73.5% R+47.0 25,402 winkler buckingham 82.6% R+65.2 1,775 wise buckingham 82.7% R+65.5 35,895 wood buckingham 84.1% R+68.3 22,913 yoakum buckingham 83.0% R+66.0 2,172 young buckingham 86.7% R+73.4 7,827 zapata flores 50.9% D+1.8 3,909 zavala flores 66.3% D+32.6 2,971
the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
data · theoelections projection, 2026
