the 2026 forecast

margin: each state, or each house district, is coloured by the forecast margin, deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ratings: by the leader's chance of winning, 50 to 60 tossup, 60 to 75 lean, 75 to 90 likely, 90 to 100 safe. ruled: no race in 2026. every 2026 race is forecast, with or without recent polls.

the senate counts all 100 seats and the governors all 50: those not up in 2026 count with their party.

the ranges hold 95% of the model's outcomes; the average is the mean across them. the forecast is updated every night.

Texas on this page is the national forecast's Texas. the forecast tab is a separate projection of Texas, precinct by precinct, built on its own date; the two are made separately, so the same race can read differently on each.

the house district map is Wikipedia's 2026 map (Wikimedia Commons, CC0), with its Chicago, New York and Los Angeles insets.

data · theoelections forecast