U.S. house, 2026
38 seats · 20 for a majority · democrats 12.9 on average, republicans 25.1 · republican majority 97%
the 2026 forecast for the U.S. house seats of Texas, district by district. the vote is the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican: R+2.6, democrats 48.7% and republicans 51.3%. open it on the forecast map.
| district | rating | lead | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD 1 | safe R | R+45.8 | republican >99% | |
| CD 2 | safe R | R+12.1 | republican 97% | |
| CD 3 | safe R | R+13.9 | republican 99% | |
| CD 4 | safe R | R+14.6 | republican 99% | |
| CD 5 | safe R | R+13.8 | republican 99% | |
| CD 6 | safe R | R+13.8 | republican 98% | |
| CD 7 | safe D | D+37.5 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 8 | safe R | R+19.2 | republican >99% | |
| CD 9 | likely R | R+6.5 | republican 85% | |
| CD 10 | safe R | R+13.2 | republican 98% | |
| CD 11 | safe R | R+24.3 | republican >99% | |
| CD 12 | safe R | R+13.2 | republican 98% | |
| CD 13 | safe R | R+37.9 | republican >99% | |
| CD 14 | safe R | R+15.7 | republican 99% | |
| CD 15 | lean D | D+1.9 | democrat 62% | |
| CD 16 | safe D | D+36.6 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 17 | safe R | R+11.8 | republican 97% | |
| CD 18 | safe D | D+62.6 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 19 | safe R | R+42.0 | republican >99% | |
| CD 20 | safe D | D+46.2 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 21 | safe R | R+9.0 | republican 92% | |
| CD 22 | safe R | R+10.8 | republican 96% | |
| CD 23 | lean D | D+2.0 | democrat 63% | |
| CD 24 | lean R | R+3.8 | republican 73% | |
| CD 25 | safe R | R+17.2 | republican >99% | |
| CD 26 | safe R | R+13.3 | republican 98% | |
| CD 27 | safe R | R+9.9 | republican 94% | |
| CD 28 | safe D | D+13.7 | democrat 98% | |
| CD 29 | safe D | D+42.7 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 30 | safe D | D+53.4 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 31 | safe R | R+11.5 | republican 96% | |
| CD 32 | safe R | R+8.6 | republican 91% | |
| CD 33 | safe D | D+45.5 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 34 | safe D | D+10.7 | democrat 95% | |
| CD 35 | likely D | D+4.7 | democrat 77% | |
| CD 36 | safe R | R+17.1 | republican >99% | |
| CD 37 | safe D | D+67.6 | democrat >99% | |
| CD 38 | safe R | R+9.1 | republican 92% |
- the map: each district by its rating, or by its margin; its precincts and counties by the margin. ruled: no race there in 2026.
- a rating is the leader’s chance: 50 to 60 tossup, 60 to 75 lean, 75 to 90 likely, 90 to 100 safe.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026