forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 16, 2026
safe D · democrat >99% to win · D+36.6
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 68.3% | 145,142 | >99% | |
| republican | 31.7% | 67,434 | <1% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 16th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 16
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 64.5% | D+33.8 | 209,848 | |
| governor | hinojosa 61.6% | D+26.5 | 209,848 | |
| railroad commissioner | rosenthal 64.4% | D+28.9 | 201,217 | |
| lieutenant governor | goodwin 62.9% | D+25.9 | 201,217 | |
| attorney general | johnson 62.8% | D+25.7 | 201,216 | |
| comptroller | eckhardt 61.7% | D+23.5 | 201,217 | |
| land commissioner | flores 63.7% | D+27.5 | 201,217 | |
| agriculture commissioner | tucker 63.3% | D+26.6 | 201,217 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026