forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 15, 2026
lean D · democrat 62% to win · D+1.9
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 51.0% | 108,723 | 62% | |
| republican | 49.0% | 104,573 | 38% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 15th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 15
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 50.6% | D+3.8 | 210,320 | |
| governor | abbott 51.2% | R+4.3 | 210,321 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 51.5% | R+3.1 | 205,448 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 53.1% | R+6.3 | 205,450 | |
| attorney general | middleton 53.2% | R+6.3 | 205,449 | |
| comptroller | huffines 54.3% | R+8.6 | 205,450 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 52.1% | R+4.2 | 205,449 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 52.6% | R+5.2 | 205,449 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026