forecasts · by race
railroad commissioner, 2026
R+3.4 · lean R · french 70% to win
candidate party vote votes chance
rosenthal democrat 48.3% 5,030,163 30% french republican 51.7% 5,381,784 70%
the 2026 forecast of the race for railroad commissioner in Texas, Rosenthal against French, counted on the two alone. open it on the forecast map , precinct by precinct.
by group of voters
group forecast lead votes
white voters french 63.2% R+26.4 6,487,586 hispanic voters rosenthal 59.7% D+19.5 2,044,571 black voters rosenthal 88.2% D+76.3 1,196,096 other voters rosenthal 53.8% D+7.6 683,682
by county
county forecast lead votes
anderson french 77.9% R+55.7 17,978 andrews french 83.4% R+66.7 5,572 angelina french 73.5% R+47.0 31,770 aransas french 73.3% R+46.7 12,126 archer french 87.6% R+75.1 4,850 armstrong french 90.1% R+80.2 1,056 atascosa french 64.9% R+29.9 16,827 austin french 78.5% R+56.9 14,317 bailey french 78.6% R+57.2 1,601 bandera french 77.2% R+54.3 12,668 bastrop french 54.1% R+8.2 36,504 baylor french 86.5% R+73.0 1,565 bee french 63.6% R+27.2 8,034 bell french 53.7% R+7.3 118,746 bexar rosenthal 61.6% D+23.2 684,998 blanco french 72.7% R+45.3 7,990 borden french 96.2% R+92.4 365 bosque french 79.7% R+59.5 8,987 bowie french 72.7% R+45.4 33,881 brazoria french 55.1% R+10.1 147,866 brazos french 58.1% R+16.3 84,694 brewster french 51.5% R+2.9 4,223 briscoe french 88.0% R+76.0 700 brooks rosenthal 64.8% D+29.5 2,117 brown french 84.2% R+68.4 15,789 burleson french 78.8% R+57.7 8,722 burnet french 74.4% R+48.7 26,354 caldwell french 51.6% R+3.2 14,356 calhoun french 71.1% R+42.2 7,256 callahan french 85.9% R+71.8 6,564 cameron rosenthal 56.0% D+12.1 105,298 camp french 74.1% R+48.2 4,902 carson french 88.0% R+76.0 2,960 cass french 81.3% R+62.6 13,306 castro french 76.9% R+53.9 1,849 chambers french 79.9% R+59.8 23,236 cherokee french 79.1% R+58.3 19,076 childress french 85.8% R+71.6 2,101 clay french 87.2% R+74.3 5,564 cochran french 80.9% R+61.8 815 coke french 86.3% R+72.7 1,714 coleman french 87.2% R+74.3 3,892 collin rosenthal 51.2% D+2.3 469,921 collingsworth french 87.0% R+74.0 1,126 colorado french 75.7% R+51.3 9,317 comal french 68.6% R+37.3 96,522 comanche french 83.3% R+66.6 6,144 concho french 83.3% R+66.6 1,116 cooke french 79.9% R+59.9 19,100 coryell french 66.2% R+32.4 21,736 cottle french 84.2% R+68.4 606 crane french 83.2% R+66.5 1,244 crockett french 73.1% R+46.2 1,274 crosby french 73.3% R+46.5 1,721 culberson rosenthal 50.1% D+0.3 693 dallam french 87.2% R+74.5 1,323 dallas rosenthal 67.5% D+35.0 769,767 dawson french 77.5% R+55.1 3,206 deaf smith french 72.7% R+45.4 3,935 delta french 81.0% R+62.0 2,498 denton french 50.8% R+1.7 414,378 dewitt french 80.2% R+60.4 7,289 dickens french 83.0% R+66.0 925 dimmit rosenthal 62.1% D+24.2 2,946 donley french 87.2% R+74.3 1,577 duval rosenthal 57.3% D+14.6 3,810 eastland french 86.2% R+72.3 7,827 ector french 72.0% R+43.9 39,231 edwards french 82.3% R+64.6 911 el paso rosenthal 63.9% D+27.9 220,645 ellis french 61.3% R+22.6 91,824 erath french 80.6% R+61.2 17,094 falls french 69.4% R+38.9 5,835 fannin french 79.9% R+59.8 15,340 fayette french 77.8% R+55.6 12,522 fisher french 77.8% R+55.6 1,701 floyd french 77.8% R+55.6 1,928 foard french 80.3% R+60.6 511 fort bend rosenthal 57.6% D+15.3 320,348 franklin french 81.9% R+63.7 4,996 freestone french 80.5% R+61.1 8,408 frio french 52.7% R+5.5 4,347 gaines french 90.1% R+80.1 5,988 galveston french 59.1% R+18.2 146,499 garza french 84.1% R+68.3 1,468 gillespie french 77.5% R+55.0 15,552 glasscock french 93.7% R+87.4 628 goliad french 76.1% R+52.3 3,699 gonzales french 73.2% R+46.4 7,108 gray french 86.8% R+73.7 7,051 grayson french 73.7% R+47.5 61,234 gregg french 68.8% R+37.6 43,249 grimes french 77.3% R+54.5 13,083 guadalupe french 59.5% R+19.1 77,818 hale french 75.4% R+50.8 8,515 hall french 84.5% R+69.0 1,062 hamilton french 82.8% R+65.6 4,213 hansford french 91.5% R+83.0 1,866 hardeman french 82.5% R+65.0 1,317 hardin french 85.8% R+71.7 26,466 harris rosenthal 58.8% D+17.6 1,411,003 harrison french 73.9% R+47.8 28,117 hartley french 90.3% R+80.7 1,902 haskell french 82.2% R+64.3 2,089 hays rosenthal 58.5% D+17.0 116,253 hemphill french 86.1% R+72.3 1,512 henderson french 78.3% R+56.6 35,911 hidalgo rosenthal 57.3% D+14.7 194,038 hill french 78.4% R+56.8 15,642 hockley french 80.8% R+61.7 7,439 hood french 79.6% R+59.2 34,278 hopkins french 79.1% R+58.2 15,719 houston french 75.6% R+51.1 8,681 howard french 77.9% R+55.7 8,853 hudspeth french 68.3% R+36.6 923 hunt french 73.7% R+47.3 43,420 hutchinson french 86.8% R+73.5 7,658 irion french 84.4% R+68.9 814 jack french 88.5% R+77.0 3,953 jackson french 82.6% R+65.2 5,917 jasper french 81.5% R+63.1 14,844 jeff davis french 56.6% R+13.2 1,070 jefferson french 51.4% R+2.8 78,419 jim hogg rosenthal 64.4% D+28.9 1,415 jim wells french 50.5% R+1.0 11,978 johnson french 71.3% R+42.6 74,789 jones french 83.3% R+66.6 6,448 karnes french 74.1% R+48.2 4,674 kaufman french 59.3% R+18.7 63,790 kendall french 74.5% R+49.1 27,556 kenedy french 62.8% R+25.7 133 kent french 85.4% R+70.8 423 kerr french 73.4% R+46.8 26,389 kimble french 85.8% R+71.6 2,243 king french 95.8% R+91.6 129 kinney french 68.5% R+37.1 1,295 kleberg rosenthal 50.9% D+1.8 9,136 knox french 79.7% R+59.4 1,285 la salle rosenthal 50.1% D+0.2 1,927 lamar french 77.5% R+55.0 19,869 lamb french 80.0% R+60.0 3,829 lampasas french 76.8% R+53.6 10,445 lavaca french 85.3% R+70.6 9,870 lee french 77.6% R+55.2 7,861 leon french 86.3% R+72.7 8,480 liberty french 77.5% R+55.1 28,997 limestone french 75.5% R+51.1 8,458 lipscomb french 87.8% R+75.7 1,170 live oak french 81.7% R+63.4 4,758 llano french 77.8% R+55.7 12,860 loving french 79.0% R+58.1 87 lubbock french 66.5% R+33.0 115,472 lynn french 83.8% R+67.6 2,369 madison french 79.7% R+59.4 5,078 marion french 75.0% R+50.0 4,386 martin french 85.5% R+71.0 1,927 mason french 80.2% R+60.4 2,373 matagorda french 71.1% R+42.1 12,332 maverick rosenthal 52.5% D+5.1 13,284 mcculloch french 84.0% R+68.0 3,293 mclennan french 61.3% R+22.6 93,114 mcmullen french 88.8% R+77.6 451 medina french 66.6% R+33.2 22,780 menard french 79.0% R+57.9 974 midland french 77.4% R+54.8 54,129 milam french 75.3% R+50.7 10,342 mills french 85.7% R+71.4 2,582 mitchell french 83.1% R+66.1 2,317 montague french 86.0% R+72.0 10,421 montgomery french 68.8% R+37.6 286,683 moore french 79.4% R+58.8 4,894 morris french 73.3% R+46.6 5,049 motley french 92.7% R+85.4 609 nacogdoches french 66.5% R+33.0 23,822 navarro french 71.7% R+43.4 18,518 newton french 81.9% R+63.8 5,359 nolan french 75.0% R+50.0 4,712 nueces rosenthal 50.3% D+0.7 111,192 ochiltree french 89.3% R+78.5 2,819 oldham french 89.4% R+78.8 917 orange french 80.9% R+61.9 33,843 palo pinto french 80.0% R+60.0 12,447 panola french 81.3% R+62.7 10,696 parker french 79.8% R+59.6 85,262 parmer french 83.0% R+65.9 2,324 pecos french 66.9% R+33.8 3,798 polk french 76.5% R+52.9 22,635 potter french 68.8% R+37.7 29,537 presidio rosenthal 69.0% D+38.0 1,798 rains french 83.5% R+67.1 6,141 randall french 77.1% R+54.3 62,723 reagan french 81.3% R+62.6 875 real french 80.6% R+61.2 1,834 red river french 78.5% R+57.0 5,393 reeves french 60.8% R+21.5 2,999 refugio french 65.3% R+30.7 2,816 roberts french 95.9% R+91.9 541 robertson french 73.4% R+46.7 7,604 rockwall french 65.8% R+31.7 58,251 runnels french 85.4% R+70.8 3,793 rusk french 77.3% R+54.5 20,088 sabine french 87.8% R+75.6 5,243 san augustine french 77.1% R+54.2 3,472 san jacinto french 79.8% R+59.5 11,901 san patricio french 62.6% R+25.2 23,485 san saba french 86.1% R+72.2 2,535 schleicher french 78.9% R+57.8 1,027 scurry french 83.7% R+67.5 5,245 shackelford french 88.5% R+77.0 1,628 shelby french 81.0% R+62.0 9,312 sherman french 89.5% R+79.1 839 smith french 70.1% R+40.2 96,267 somervell french 81.5% R+62.9 4,950 starr rosenthal 52.7% D+5.4 13,002 stephens french 86.4% R+72.8 3,515 sterling french 89.9% R+79.8 582 stonewall french 81.3% R+62.7 672 sutton french 80.6% R+61.3 1,303 swisher french 77.9% R+55.8 2,083 tarrant rosenthal 53.1% D+6.3 755,847 taylor french 71.1% R+42.1 51,541 terrell french 74.6% R+49.2 366 terry french 79.4% R+58.7 3,111 throckmorton french 89.8% R+79.6 847 titus french 74.5% R+49.1 9,471 tom green french 69.7% R+39.3 42,005 travis rosenthal 75.2% D+50.4 533,268 trinity french 80.4% R+60.8 6,878 tyler french 84.4% R+68.9 8,985 upshur french 83.3% R+66.7 18,616 upton french 85.1% R+70.2 1,176 uvalde french 59.7% R+19.5 8,865 val verde french 54.9% R+9.8 13,086 van zandt french 84.6% R+69.2 26,356 victoria french 68.1% R+36.2 32,554 walker french 66.4% R+32.7 23,262 waller french 59.6% R+19.1 25,319 ward french 78.6% R+57.2 3,462 washington french 74.5% R+49.1 17,005 webb rosenthal 58.4% D+16.9 58,218 wharton french 72.4% R+44.8 15,278 wheeler french 90.3% R+80.6 2,127 wichita french 68.9% R+37.8 41,225 wilbarger french 76.6% R+53.2 4,135 willacy rosenthal 58.6% D+17.1 4,953 williamson rosenthal 54.2% D+8.3 282,084 wilson french 72.2% R+44.5 25,402 winkler french 82.0% R+64.1 1,776 wise french 81.3% R+62.7 35,895 wood french 82.7% R+65.4 22,913 yoakum french 82.4% R+64.9 2,171 young french 85.4% R+70.9 7,827 zapata rosenthal 51.0% D+1.9 3,909 zavala rosenthal 66.4% D+32.9 2,971
the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
data · theoelections projection, 2026
