forecasts · by race
attorney general, 2026
R+4.9 · likely R · middleton 78% to win
candidate party vote votes chance
johnson democrat 47.6% 4,953,094 22% middleton republican 52.4% 5,458,851 78%
the 2026 forecast of the race for attorney general in Texas, Johnson against Middleton, counted on the two alone. open it on the forecast map , precinct by precinct.
by group of voters
group forecast lead votes
white voters middleton 63.2% R+26.4 6,487,591 hispanic voters johnson 57.4% D+14.7 2,044,564 black voters johnson 87.8% D+75.7 1,196,106 other voters johnson 50.0% even 683,688
by county
county forecast lead votes
anderson middleton 78.2% R+56.4 17,978 andrews middleton 84.1% R+68.2 5,572 angelina middleton 73.8% R+47.7 31,770 aransas middleton 73.7% R+47.4 12,126 archer middleton 87.7% R+75.4 4,850 armstrong middleton 90.1% R+80.3 1,057 atascosa middleton 66.1% R+32.2 16,827 austin middleton 78.8% R+57.6 14,317 bailey middleton 79.4% R+58.7 1,601 bandera middleton 77.5% R+54.9 12,668 bastrop middleton 54.6% R+9.2 36,505 baylor middleton 86.7% R+73.3 1,565 bee middleton 64.9% R+29.8 8,034 bell middleton 54.2% R+8.4 118,746 bexar johnson 60.4% D+20.9 684,998 blanco middleton 72.9% R+45.7 7,990 borden middleton 96.3% R+92.5 365 bosque middleton 79.9% R+59.8 8,987 bowie middleton 72.9% R+45.8 33,882 brazoria middleton 55.8% R+11.6 147,866 brazos middleton 58.6% R+17.2 84,694 brewster middleton 52.1% R+4.2 4,223 briscoe middleton 88.2% R+76.3 700 brooks johnson 62.7% D+25.5 2,117 brown middleton 84.5% R+68.9 15,789 burleson middleton 79.2% R+58.3 8,721 burnet middleton 74.6% R+49.2 26,355 caldwell middleton 52.4% R+4.7 14,356 calhoun middleton 71.9% R+43.7 7,255 callahan middleton 86.1% R+72.1 6,564 cameron johnson 54.1% D+8.3 105,297 camp middleton 74.5% R+48.9 4,902 carson middleton 88.2% R+76.4 2,960 cass middleton 81.5% R+63.0 13,306 castro middleton 77.7% R+55.4 1,849 chambers middleton 80.3% R+60.6 23,235 cherokee middleton 79.4% R+58.8 19,076 childress middleton 86.2% R+72.4 2,101 clay middleton 87.3% R+74.6 5,563 cochran middleton 81.6% R+63.3 815 coke middleton 86.6% R+73.1 1,715 coleman middleton 87.4% R+74.8 3,892 collin johnson 50.4% D+0.8 469,921 collingsworth middleton 87.3% R+74.7 1,126 colorado middleton 76.0% R+52.1 9,317 comal middleton 69.1% R+38.1 96,523 comanche middleton 83.5% R+67.0 6,144 concho middleton 83.7% R+67.4 1,116 cooke middleton 80.1% R+60.3 19,101 coryell middleton 66.7% R+33.4 21,737 cottle middleton 84.6% R+69.1 606 crane middleton 84.1% R+68.2 1,244 crockett middleton 74.1% R+48.3 1,274 crosby middleton 74.1% R+48.2 1,722 culberson middleton 51.4% R+2.8 693 dallam middleton 87.8% R+75.6 1,323 dallas johnson 66.8% D+33.5 769,769 dawson middleton 78.5% R+56.9 3,206 deaf smith middleton 73.8% R+47.6 3,935 delta middleton 81.2% R+62.5 2,499 denton middleton 51.5% R+3.0 414,378 dewitt middleton 80.7% R+61.4 7,289 dickens middleton 83.4% R+66.7 925 dimmit johnson 60.2% D+20.4 2,946 donley middleton 87.3% R+74.6 1,577 duval johnson 55.3% D+10.7 3,810 eastland middleton 86.3% R+72.7 7,827 ector middleton 73.0% R+46.0 39,230 edwards middleton 82.9% R+65.7 912 el paso johnson 62.3% D+24.7 220,644 ellis middleton 61.7% R+23.4 91,823 erath middleton 80.8% R+61.6 17,094 falls middleton 69.8% R+39.5 5,835 fannin middleton 80.1% R+60.2 15,340 fayette middleton 78.0% R+56.1 12,522 fisher middleton 78.2% R+56.5 1,701 floyd middleton 78.6% R+57.2 1,928 foard middleton 80.6% R+61.1 511 fort bend johnson 56.5% D+13.0 320,347 franklin middleton 82.0% R+64.0 4,996 freestone middleton 80.8% R+61.6 8,408 frio middleton 54.3% R+8.6 4,347 gaines middleton 90.5% R+81.0 5,988 galveston middleton 59.6% R+19.2 146,500 garza middleton 84.7% R+69.4 1,468 gillespie middleton 77.7% R+55.3 15,551 glasscock middleton 93.9% R+87.9 628 goliad middleton 76.7% R+53.3 3,699 gonzales middleton 73.8% R+47.7 7,108 gray middleton 87.1% R+74.3 7,051 grayson middleton 73.9% R+47.9 61,234 gregg middleton 69.0% R+38.1 43,248 grimes middleton 77.7% R+55.3 13,083 guadalupe middleton 60.2% R+20.5 77,818 hale middleton 76.3% R+52.6 8,516 hall middleton 84.9% R+69.7 1,063 hamilton middleton 82.9% R+65.8 4,213 hansford middleton 91.9% R+83.8 1,866 hardeman middleton 82.9% R+65.7 1,317 hardin middleton 86.0% R+72.0 26,466 harris johnson 57.9% D+15.7 1,411,005 harrison middleton 74.2% R+48.3 28,117 hartley middleton 90.6% R+81.3 1,902 haskell middleton 82.5% R+65.0 2,089 hays johnson 58.0% D+15.9 116,253 hemphill middleton 86.4% R+72.8 1,512 henderson middleton 78.5% R+57.0 35,911 hidalgo johnson 55.3% D+10.6 194,037 hill middleton 78.7% R+57.4 15,642 hockley middleton 81.4% R+62.9 7,439 hood middleton 79.8% R+59.6 34,278 hopkins middleton 79.3% R+58.7 15,719 houston middleton 75.8% R+51.7 8,681 howard middleton 78.5% R+57.0 8,853 hudspeth middleton 69.5% R+38.9 924 hunt middleton 74.0% R+47.9 43,420 hutchinson middleton 87.1% R+74.1 7,658 irion middleton 84.8% R+69.7 813 jack middleton 88.6% R+77.3 3,953 jackson middleton 83.0% R+66.1 5,917 jasper middleton 81.7% R+63.5 14,844 jeff davis middleton 57.0% R+13.9 1,070 jefferson middleton 51.8% R+3.6 78,420 jim hogg johnson 62.5% D+24.9 1,415 jim wells middleton 52.1% R+4.2 11,977 johnson middleton 71.7% R+43.3 74,789 jones middleton 83.7% R+67.4 6,448 karnes middleton 75.0% R+50.0 4,674 kaufman middleton 59.8% R+19.6 63,789 kendall middleton 74.9% R+49.7 27,556 kenedy middleton 64.2% R+28.5 133 kent middleton 85.7% R+71.3 423 kerr middleton 73.7% R+47.4 26,389 kimble middleton 86.0% R+72.1 2,243 king middleton 96.0% R+91.9 129 kinney middleton 69.5% R+38.9 1,295 kleberg middleton 50.6% R+1.1 9,136 knox middleton 80.2% R+60.3 1,285 la salle middleton 51.7% R+3.4 1,927 lamar middleton 77.7% R+55.5 19,869 lamb middleton 80.7% R+61.4 3,829 lampasas middleton 77.1% R+54.2 10,445 lavaca middleton 85.5% R+71.0 9,870 lee middleton 77.9% R+55.8 7,861 leon middleton 86.5% R+73.0 8,480 liberty middleton 77.9% R+55.9 28,997 limestone middleton 75.8% R+51.6 8,458 lipscomb middleton 88.2% R+76.3 1,170 live oak middleton 82.4% R+64.7 4,758 llano middleton 77.9% R+55.9 12,860 loving middleton 79.5% R+59.0 87 lubbock middleton 67.1% R+34.2 115,472 lynn middleton 84.3% R+68.5 2,369 madison middleton 80.1% R+60.2 5,079 marion middleton 75.2% R+50.4 4,386 martin middleton 86.1% R+72.2 1,927 mason middleton 80.4% R+60.8 2,373 matagorda middleton 71.7% R+43.4 12,332 maverick johnson 50.3% D+0.6 13,284 mcculloch middleton 84.4% R+68.8 3,294 mclennan middleton 61.7% R+23.3 93,114 mcmullen middleton 89.4% R+78.7 451 medina middleton 67.5% R+34.9 22,780 menard middleton 79.4% R+58.9 975 midland middleton 78.1% R+56.1 54,129 milam middleton 75.6% R+51.3 10,342 mills middleton 85.9% R+71.8 2,582 mitchell middleton 83.6% R+67.3 2,317 montague middleton 86.1% R+72.3 10,421 montgomery middleton 69.2% R+38.5 286,682 moore middleton 80.2% R+60.4 4,894 morris middleton 73.5% R+47.1 5,049 motley middleton 92.8% R+85.7 609 nacogdoches middleton 66.8% R+33.5 23,822 navarro middleton 72.1% R+44.2 18,518 newton middleton 82.1% R+64.2 5,358 nolan middleton 75.5% R+51.0 4,712 nueces middleton 50.9% R+1.7 111,191 ochiltree middleton 89.8% R+79.6 2,819 oldham middleton 89.5% R+79.1 917 orange middleton 81.1% R+62.2 33,842 palo pinto middleton 80.2% R+60.4 12,447 panola middleton 81.6% R+63.2 10,696 parker middleton 80.0% R+60.0 85,262 parmer middleton 83.6% R+67.3 2,324 pecos middleton 68.4% R+36.8 3,798 polk middleton 76.8% R+53.5 22,635 potter middleton 69.4% R+38.9 29,538 presidio johnson 67.7% D+35.5 1,798 rains middleton 83.7% R+67.4 6,141 randall middleton 77.6% R+55.1 62,723 reagan middleton 82.2% R+64.4 875 real middleton 80.9% R+61.9 1,834 red river middleton 78.7% R+57.3 5,393 reeves middleton 62.5% R+25.0 2,999 refugio middleton 66.2% R+32.5 2,816 roberts middleton 96.0% R+92.1 541 robertson middleton 73.7% R+47.4 7,604 rockwall middleton 66.3% R+32.5 58,252 runnels middleton 85.7% R+71.4 3,793 rusk middleton 77.6% R+55.2 20,088 sabine middleton 88.0% R+75.9 5,243 san augustine middleton 77.3% R+54.5 3,472 san jacinto middleton 80.0% R+60.1 11,901 san patricio middleton 63.6% R+27.2 23,485 san saba middleton 86.4% R+72.9 2,535 schleicher middleton 79.7% R+59.3 1,027 scurry middleton 84.3% R+68.6 5,245 shackelford middleton 88.7% R+77.3 1,628 shelby middleton 81.3% R+62.5 9,312 sherman middleton 89.8% R+79.6 839 smith middleton 70.4% R+40.7 96,266 somervell middleton 81.7% R+63.4 4,950 starr johnson 50.4% D+0.7 13,003 stephens middleton 86.7% R+73.4 3,515 sterling middleton 90.2% R+80.4 582 stonewall middleton 81.5% R+63.0 672 sutton middleton 81.5% R+63.0 1,303 swisher middleton 78.5% R+56.9 2,082 tarrant johnson 52.5% D+5.0 755,848 taylor middleton 71.5% R+42.9 51,541 terrell middleton 75.3% R+50.5 366 terry middleton 80.2% R+60.4 3,111 throckmorton middleton 89.9% R+79.8 847 titus middleton 74.9% R+49.9 9,471 tom green middleton 70.3% R+40.6 42,004 travis johnson 74.6% D+49.2 533,268 trinity middleton 80.6% R+61.1 6,878 tyler middleton 84.6% R+69.2 8,985 upshur middleton 83.5% R+67.0 18,616 upton middleton 85.8% R+71.6 1,176 uvalde middleton 61.0% R+22.0 8,865 val verde middleton 56.5% R+13.1 13,086 van zandt middleton 84.8% R+69.5 26,355 victoria middleton 68.9% R+37.7 32,553 walker middleton 66.8% R+33.6 23,262 waller middleton 60.1% R+20.2 25,319 ward middleton 79.5% R+58.9 3,462 washington middleton 74.8% R+49.6 17,004 webb johnson 56.3% D+12.6 58,218 wharton middleton 73.0% R+46.0 15,278 wheeler middleton 90.5% R+81.0 2,127 wichita middleton 69.3% R+38.5 41,225 wilbarger middleton 77.1% R+54.3 4,135 willacy johnson 56.6% D+13.2 4,953 williamson johnson 53.6% D+7.1 282,084 wilson middleton 72.9% R+45.8 25,402 winkler middleton 82.8% R+65.6 1,776 wise middleton 81.6% R+63.2 35,895 wood middleton 82.9% R+65.7 22,913 yoakum middleton 83.3% R+66.6 2,172 young middleton 85.6% R+71.3 7,827 zapata middleton 51.2% R+2.5 3,909 zavala johnson 64.6% D+29.2 2,971
the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
data · theoelections projection, 2026
