forecasts · by race
U.S. senator, 2026
D+2.4 · lean D · talarico 65% to win
candidate party vote votes chance
talarico democrat 49.8% 5,313,902 65% paxton republican 47.5% 5,062,240 35% others 2.7% 287,943
the 2026 forecast of the race for U.S. senator in Texas, Talarico against Paxton. open it on the forecast map , precinct by precinct.
by group of voters
group forecast lead votes
white voters paxton 58.0% R+18.3 6,613,910 hispanic voters talarico 60.7% D+25.5 2,121,079 black voters talarico 82.7% D+67.7 1,221,128 other voters talarico 54.7% D+13.2 707,941
by county
county forecast lead votes
anderson paxton 74.9% R+51.6 18,277 andrews paxton 79.3% R+61.0 5,689 angelina paxton 69.7% R+41.6 32,419 aransas paxton 68.1% R+38.6 12,395 archer paxton 84.2% R+69.9 4,911 armstrong paxton 87.0% R+75.5 1,070 atascosa paxton 59.9% R+22.6 17,249 austin paxton 74.7% R+51.6 14,610 bailey paxton 74.1% R+50.5 1,635 bandera paxton 71.9% R+46.4 12,977 bastrop paxton 48.6% R+0.5 37,607 baylor paxton 82.1% R+67.0 1,603 bee paxton 58.9% R+20.2 8,211 bell paxton 49.2% R+1.5 121,979 bexar talarico 63.2% D+29.2 701,696 blanco paxton 67.2% R+36.7 8,163 borden paxton 94.4% R+89.9 368 bosque paxton 74.8% R+52.1 9,176 bowie paxton 69.8% R+41.5 34,416 brazoria paxton 51.3% R+5.5 151,765 brazos paxton 52.6% R+8.7 87,298 brewster talarico 51.3% D+5.8 4,341 briscoe paxton 84.1% R+70.6 714 brooks talarico 66.5% D+35.4 2,162 brown paxton 80.3% R+62.7 16,088 burleson paxton 75.5% R+53.2 8,901 burnet paxton 69.0% R+40.5 26,958 caldwell talarico 50.4% D+4.2 14,795 calhoun paxton 66.7% R+35.4 7,385 callahan paxton 81.7% R+65.7 6,698 cameron talarico 58.3% D+19.4 107,908 camp paxton 71.6% R+44.8 4,973 carson paxton 84.0% R+70.2 3,021 cass paxton 79.2% R+59.9 13,479 castro paxton 72.3% R+47.3 1,893 chambers paxton 76.4% R+55.2 23,723 cherokee paxton 76.0% R+54.2 19,469 childress paxton 82.9% R+67.9 2,139 clay paxton 83.6% R+68.9 5,648 cochran paxton 76.3% R+55.8 839 coke paxton 83.1% R+67.3 1,733 coleman paxton 83.8% R+69.4 3,956 collin talarico 53.1% D+8.6 480,230 collingsworth paxton 85.0% R+71.1 1,138 colorado paxton 72.3% R+46.3 9,466 comal paxton 63.2% R+29.0 98,829 comanche paxton 79.1% R+60.1 6,249 concho paxton 79.5% R+60.9 1,134 cooke paxton 75.4% R+53.1 19,478 coryell paxton 61.3% R+26.1 22,423 cottle paxton 80.9% R+63.4 615 crane paxton 79.6% R+61.2 1,266 crockett paxton 67.9% R+38.7 1,308 crosby paxton 67.9% R+39.0 1,771 culberson talarico 53.3% D+8.3 703 dallam paxton 83.0% R+69.1 1,360 dallas talarico 68.1% D+38.8 787,858 dawson paxton 73.2% R+49.1 3,283 deaf smith paxton 67.9% R+38.2 4,018 delta paxton 77.5% R+56.8 2,541 denton talarico 51.2% D+5.0 423,590 dewitt paxton 77.0% R+55.6 7,400 dickens paxton 78.9% R+59.9 942 dimmit talarico 63.4% D+29.9 3,029 donley paxton 84.1% R+69.9 1,601 duval talarico 58.9% D+21.0 3,917 eastland paxton 82.4% R+66.9 7,966 ector paxton 67.4% R+37.3 40,098 edwards paxton 77.8% R+58.1 932 el paso talarico 64.1% D+32.9 230,091 ellis paxton 57.2% R+16.7 93,783 erath paxton 75.8% R+54.0 17,458 falls paxton 65.9% R+34.3 5,962 fannin paxton 75.6% R+53.5 15,652 fayette paxton 73.6% R+49.2 12,737 fisher paxton 73.5% R+49.0 1,732 floyd paxton 73.1% R+48.8 1,972 foard paxton 76.2% R+53.7 516 fort bend talarico 58.2% D+19.4 329,083 franklin paxton 78.3% R+58.1 5,061 freestone paxton 77.8% R+57.6 8,560 frio talarico 49.0% D+0.8 4,454 gaines paxton 87.2% R+76.2 6,088 galveston paxton 54.2% R+11.2 150,240 garza paxton 81.2% R+64.4 1,494 gillespie paxton 72.4% R+47.0 15,872 glasscock paxton 91.6% R+84.4 634 goliad paxton 72.3% R+46.6 3,763 gonzales paxton 68.9% R+40.4 7,277 gray paxton 83.3% R+68.9 7,197 grayson paxton 68.9% R+40.0 62,492 gregg paxton 64.9% R+32.3 44,175 grimes paxton 73.8% R+49.8 13,331 guadalupe paxton 54.5% R+11.9 79,840 hale paxton 70.7% R+44.4 8,744 hall paxton 80.9% R+63.8 1,081 hamilton paxton 78.1% R+58.5 4,302 hansford paxton 88.6% R+79.0 1,895 hardeman paxton 79.2% R+59.9 1,334 hardin paxton 82.6% R+67.1 26,918 harris talarico 59.6% D+22.3 1,449,284 harrison paxton 71.2% R+44.4 28,621 hartley paxton 88.4% R+77.7 1,917 haskell paxton 78.3% R+59.0 2,132 hays talarico 60.5% D+24.4 119,745 hemphill paxton 82.3% R+66.5 1,535 henderson paxton 74.1% R+50.3 36,597 hidalgo talarico 59.4% D+21.7 198,987 hill paxton 74.1% R+50.4 15,958 hockley paxton 76.7% R+55.8 7,593 hood paxton 74.8% R+51.9 34,993 hopkins paxton 75.2% R+52.4 15,999 houston paxton 73.1% R+48.0 8,821 howard paxton 73.4% R+49.5 9,069 hudspeth paxton 62.5% R+28.6 954 hunt paxton 69.1% R+40.7 44,365 hutchinson paxton 82.7% R+67.9 7,825 irion paxton 80.2% R+62.6 830 jack paxton 85.3% R+72.3 4,015 jackson paxton 79.8% R+61.0 5,992 jasper paxton 79.4% R+60.1 15,035 jeff davis paxton 50.0% R+3.6 1,105 jefferson talarico 49.5% D+0.9 79,730 jim hogg talarico 67.1% D+35.4 1,430 jim wells talarico 51.4% D+5.5 12,253 johnson paxton 66.4% R+35.7 76,690 jones paxton 80.3% R+62.8 6,575 karnes paxton 70.4% R+43.0 4,761 kaufman paxton 55.7% R+13.7 65,110 kendall paxton 69.5% R+41.2 28,075 kenedy paxton 57.3% R+17.7 136 kent paxton 81.7% R+65.2 430 kerr paxton 68.1% R+38.7 26,973 kimble paxton 81.9% R+65.7 2,284 king paxton 95.2% R+90.4 129 kinney paxton 63.4% R+29.0 1,319 kleberg talarico 52.8% D+8.3 9,348 knox paxton 76.2% R+54.1 1,303 la salle talarico 51.5% D+6.7 1,991 lamar paxton 74.1% R+49.9 20,161 lamb paxton 75.6% R+53.9 3,921 lampasas paxton 72.0% R+46.8 10,696 lavaca paxton 82.3% R+66.0 9,989 lee paxton 74.3% R+50.5 7,992 leon paxton 83.2% R+68.5 8,632 liberty paxton 74.1% R+50.6 29,615 limestone paxton 72.6% R+47.1 8,593 lipscomb paxton 84.1% R+70.2 1,192 live oak paxton 78.0% R+57.7 4,829 llano paxton 72.8% R+47.7 13,098 loving paxton 73.6% R+50.8 89 lubbock paxton 61.2% R+25.5 118,572 lynn paxton 80.1% R+62.1 2,410 madison paxton 77.4% R+56.8 5,168 marion paxton 72.8% R+47.6 4,465 martin paxton 81.6% R+65.7 1,972 mason paxton 75.7% R+53.2 2,411 matagorda paxton 67.2% R+36.5 12,559 maverick talarico 53.9% D+12.4 13,834 mcculloch paxton 80.0% R+62.1 3,354 mclennan paxton 56.5% R+15.4 95,102 mcmullen paxton 86.3% R+73.8 456 medina paxton 61.7% R+26.0 23,285 menard paxton 74.5% R+51.0 992 midland paxton 73.2% R+49.0 55,342 milam paxton 71.1% R+44.5 10,559 mills paxton 81.8% R+65.4 2,623 mitchell paxton 80.0% R+61.8 2,354 montague paxton 82.0% R+65.9 10,595 montgomery paxton 64.2% R+30.6 292,196 moore paxton 75.0% R+52.4 4,996 morris paxton 71.0% R+43.7 5,123 motley paxton 90.0% R+81.7 617 nacogdoches paxton 62.7% R+27.6 24,276 navarro paxton 67.8% R+37.6 18,850 newton paxton 80.3% R+62.0 5,424 nolan paxton 70.1% R+42.7 4,815 nueces talarico 52.4% D+7.7 113,990 ochiltree paxton 86.1% R+74.0 2,863 oldham paxton 86.8% R+74.6 924 orange paxton 77.3% R+56.5 34,433 palo pinto paxton 75.3% R+53.0 12,713 panola paxton 78.9% R+59.2 10,832 parker paxton 75.1% R+52.6 87,080 parmer paxton 79.3% R+60.4 2,362 pecos paxton 61.6% R+26.6 3,910 polk paxton 72.5% R+47.0 23,053 potter paxton 63.7% R+30.5 30,343 presidio talarico 70.7% D+43.8 1,836 rains paxton 79.4% R+61.0 6,263 randall paxton 72.5% R+47.2 63,962 reagan paxton 77.8% R+57.5 890 real paxton 76.0% R+54.2 1,872 red river paxton 75.6% R+53.0 5,479 reeves paxton 55.1% R+14.1 3,104 refugio paxton 61.0% R+24.6 2,882 roberts paxton 93.5% R+88.8 549 robertson paxton 70.3% R+42.4 7,733 rockwall paxton 61.4% R+24.9 59,316 runnels paxton 81.8% R+65.6 3,862 rusk paxton 74.6% R+51.1 20,425 sabine paxton 85.4% R+72.2 5,304 san augustine paxton 74.6% R+51.3 3,534 san jacinto paxton 76.4% R+55.0 12,143 san patricio paxton 57.5% R+17.8 24,081 san saba paxton 82.8% R+67.4 2,575 schleicher paxton 74.6% R+51.4 1,047 scurry paxton 79.6% R+62.0 5,376 shackelford paxton 85.4% R+72.1 1,647 shelby paxton 79.3% R+59.8 9,404 sherman paxton 86.2% R+74.3 852 smith paxton 66.5% R+35.2 98,214 somervell paxton 76.5% R+55.7 5,064 starr talarico 55.0% D+13.0 13,337 stephens paxton 83.0% R+67.8 3,574 sterling paxton 86.0% R+74.7 596 stonewall paxton 77.0% R+55.9 682 sutton paxton 76.9% R+55.5 1,323 swisher paxton 73.7% R+49.9 2,129 tarrant talarico 54.7% D+12.1 774,526 taylor paxton 66.2% R+35.0 52,744 terrell paxton 70.1% R+42.2 373 terry paxton 75.1% R+52.8 3,182 throckmorton paxton 87.0% R+75.2 856 titus paxton 71.2% R+44.5 9,657 tom green paxton 64.5% R+31.9 43,100 travis talarico 75.7% D+54.1 546,368 trinity paxton 76.8% R+55.7 6,999 tyler paxton 81.3% R+64.6 9,146 upshur paxton 79.8% R+61.8 18,992 upton paxton 80.8% R+64.4 1,205 uvalde paxton 54.4% R+12.0 9,128 val verde paxton 49.5% R+2.5 13,501 van zandt paxton 80.9% R+63.7 26,798 victoria paxton 63.8% R+29.7 33,169 walker paxton 63.1% R+28.4 23,710 waller paxton 56.0% R+14.6 25,906 ward paxton 74.5% R+51.6 3,543 washington paxton 71.0% R+44.0 17,303 webb talarico 60.2% D+23.6 59,917 wharton paxton 69.2% R+40.3 15,521 wheeler paxton 87.2% R+76.2 2,161 wichita paxton 64.1% R+30.9 42,176 wilbarger paxton 72.7% R+47.6 4,219 willacy talarico 60.1% D+23.6 5,102 williamson talarico 56.1% D+15.4 290,049 wilson paxton 67.6% R+37.4 25,920 winkler paxton 78.6% R+58.8 1,802 wise paxton 77.0% R+56.2 36,593 wood paxton 78.7% R+59.5 23,332 yoakum paxton 77.9% R+58.4 2,224 young paxton 81.7% R+65.1 7,942 zapata talarico 53.3% D+9.6 4,014 zavala talarico 67.0% D+37.8 3,072
the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
data · theoelections projection, 2026
