forecasts · by race
agriculture commissioner, 2026
R+6.9 · likely R · sheets 86% to win
candidate party vote votes chance
tucker democrat 46.6% 4,848,214 14% sheets republican 53.4% 5,563,736 86%
the 2026 forecast of the race for agriculture commissioner in Texas, Tucker against Sheets, counted on the two alone. open it on the forecast map , precinct by precinct.
by group of voters
group forecast lead votes
white voters sheets 65.5% R+31.0 6,487,591 hispanic voters tucker 59.3% D+18.6 2,044,572 black voters tucker 86.9% D+73.7 1,196,105 other voters tucker 52.6% D+5.2 683,680
by county
county forecast lead votes
anderson sheets 79.4% R+58.8 17,978 andrews sheets 84.2% R+68.4 5,572 angelina sheets 74.8% R+49.5 31,770 aransas sheets 75.2% R+50.5 12,126 archer sheets 88.7% R+77.3 4,850 armstrong sheets 91.0% R+82.1 1,056 atascosa sheets 66.1% R+32.3 16,828 austin sheets 79.9% R+59.7 14,317 bailey sheets 79.7% R+59.4 1,601 bandera sheets 78.8% R+57.7 12,668 bastrop sheets 56.5% R+13.0 36,505 baylor sheets 87.6% R+75.3 1,565 bee sheets 64.8% R+29.6 8,034 bell sheets 55.5% R+11.0 118,745 bexar tucker 59.9% D+19.8 684,998 blanco sheets 74.8% R+49.6 7,990 borden sheets 96.5% R+93.0 365 bosque sheets 81.4% R+62.9 8,987 bowie sheets 74.0% R+48.0 33,882 brazoria sheets 56.7% R+13.5 147,867 brazos sheets 60.3% R+20.6 84,694 brewster sheets 53.8% R+7.6 4,223 briscoe sheets 89.0% R+77.9 700 brooks tucker 64.1% D+28.2 2,117 brown sheets 85.4% R+70.8 15,789 burleson sheets 80.3% R+60.6 8,721 burnet sheets 76.3% R+52.7 26,355 caldwell sheets 53.6% R+7.3 14,356 calhoun sheets 72.6% R+45.1 7,255 callahan sheets 87.1% R+74.2 6,564 cameron tucker 54.9% D+9.9 105,297 camp sheets 75.8% R+51.6 4,902 carson sheets 89.1% R+78.2 2,960 cass sheets 82.7% R+65.5 13,306 castro sheets 78.0% R+56.1 1,849 chambers sheets 81.0% R+61.9 23,236 cherokee sheets 80.6% R+61.1 19,076 childress sheets 86.8% R+73.6 2,101 clay sheets 88.3% R+76.6 5,563 cochran sheets 81.8% R+63.6 815 coke sheets 87.5% R+74.9 1,715 coleman sheets 88.2% R+76.4 3,892 collin sheets 51.2% R+2.4 469,922 collingsworth sheets 87.9% R+75.7 1,126 colorado sheets 77.3% R+54.6 9,317 comal sheets 70.5% R+41.1 96,523 comanche sheets 84.6% R+69.2 6,144 concho sheets 84.4% R+68.8 1,116 cooke sheets 81.6% R+63.1 19,100 coryell sheets 68.0% R+35.9 21,736 cottle sheets 85.4% R+70.9 606 crane sheets 84.0% R+68.0 1,244 crockett sheets 74.2% R+48.4 1,274 crosby sheets 74.7% R+49.5 1,722 culberson sheets 51.4% R+2.7 693 dallam sheets 88.0% R+75.9 1,323 dallas tucker 65.7% D+31.4 769,768 dawson sheets 78.6% R+57.1 3,206 deaf smith sheets 73.8% R+47.7 3,935 delta sheets 82.6% R+65.2 2,498 denton sheets 53.2% R+6.3 414,379 dewitt sheets 81.4% R+62.8 7,289 dickens sheets 84.2% R+68.5 925 dimmit tucker 61.2% D+22.4 2,946 donley sheets 88.3% R+76.6 1,577 duval tucker 56.6% D+13.1 3,809 eastland sheets 87.3% R+74.6 7,827 ector sheets 73.0% R+46.1 39,230 edwards sheets 83.3% R+66.7 911 el paso tucker 62.8% D+25.6 220,645 ellis sheets 63.1% R+26.1 91,824 erath sheets 82.1% R+64.3 17,094 falls sheets 71.1% R+42.1 5,835 fannin sheets 81.6% R+63.1 15,340 fayette sheets 79.6% R+59.1 12,522 fisher sheets 79.4% R+58.7 1,701 floyd sheets 78.9% R+57.9 1,927 foard sheets 81.9% R+63.8 510 fort bend tucker 55.9% D+11.7 320,348 franklin sheets 83.4% R+66.8 4,997 freestone sheets 82.0% R+64.1 8,408 frio sheets 53.8% R+7.7 4,347 gaines sheets 90.6% R+81.2 5,988 galveston sheets 61.1% R+22.1 146,500 garza sheets 85.1% R+70.2 1,468 gillespie sheets 79.3% R+58.6 15,552 glasscock sheets 94.0% R+88.0 628 goliad sheets 77.5% R+55.0 3,699 gonzales sheets 74.7% R+49.4 7,108 gray sheets 87.8% R+75.7 7,051 grayson sheets 75.6% R+51.1 61,234 gregg sheets 70.1% R+40.3 43,249 grimes sheets 78.7% R+57.4 13,083 guadalupe sheets 61.4% R+22.8 77,819 hale sheets 76.5% R+53.0 8,515 hall sheets 85.6% R+71.2 1,062 hamilton sheets 84.3% R+68.6 4,213 hansford sheets 92.0% R+83.9 1,866 hardeman sheets 83.9% R+67.8 1,317 hardin sheets 86.9% R+73.9 26,466 harris tucker 57.1% D+14.2 1,411,002 harrison sheets 75.3% R+50.7 28,117 hartley sheets 91.1% R+82.1 1,901 haskell sheets 83.4% R+66.8 2,089 hays tucker 56.2% D+12.5 116,252 hemphill sheets 87.2% R+74.4 1,512 henderson sheets 79.9% R+59.9 35,911 hidalgo tucker 56.4% D+12.7 194,037 hill sheets 80.0% R+60.1 15,642 hockley sheets 82.0% R+63.9 7,439 hood sheets 81.3% R+62.5 34,278 hopkins sheets 80.8% R+61.5 15,719 houston sheets 77.2% R+54.4 8,681 howard sheets 78.9% R+57.8 8,853 hudspeth sheets 69.6% R+39.3 924 hunt sheets 75.4% R+50.8 43,420 hutchinson sheets 87.8% R+75.6 7,658 irion sheets 85.5% R+71.0 814 jack sheets 89.5% R+78.9 3,953 jackson sheets 83.6% R+67.3 5,917 jasper sheets 82.9% R+65.8 14,844 jeff davis sheets 59.2% R+18.4 1,070 jefferson sheets 52.7% R+5.4 78,419 jim hogg tucker 63.7% D+27.4 1,415 jim wells sheets 51.5% R+2.9 11,977 johnson sheets 73.0% R+46.0 74,789 jones sheets 84.4% R+68.9 6,448 karnes sheets 75.2% R+50.4 4,674 kaufman sheets 61.0% R+22.1 63,789 kendall sheets 76.3% R+52.7 27,556 kenedy sheets 64.0% R+28.1 133 kent sheets 86.6% R+73.1 423 kerr sheets 75.3% R+50.7 26,389 kimble sheets 86.9% R+73.8 2,243 king sheets 96.1% R+92.2 129 kinney sheets 70.0% R+40.1 1,295 kleberg sheets 50.3% R+0.7 9,136 knox sheets 81.1% R+62.1 1,285 la salle sheets 50.8% R+1.7 1,927 lamar sheets 79.1% R+58.2 19,868 lamb sheets 81.1% R+62.2 3,829 lampasas sheets 78.5% R+56.9 10,445 lavaca sheets 86.5% R+72.9 9,870 lee sheets 79.2% R+58.3 7,861 leon sheets 87.4% R+74.8 8,479 liberty sheets 78.8% R+57.5 28,997 limestone sheets 77.1% R+54.3 8,458 lipscomb sheets 88.8% R+77.6 1,170 live oak sheets 82.7% R+65.3 4,758 llano sheets 79.7% R+59.5 12,860 loving sheets 80.6% R+61.2 87 lubbock sheets 68.3% R+36.5 115,472 lynn sheets 84.8% R+69.5 2,369 madison sheets 81.2% R+62.3 5,079 marion sheets 76.7% R+53.4 4,386 martin sheets 86.3% R+72.5 1,927 mason sheets 81.8% R+63.7 2,373 matagorda sheets 72.6% R+45.2 12,331 maverick tucker 51.7% D+3.4 13,284 mcculloch sheets 85.1% R+70.2 3,293 mclennan sheets 63.3% R+26.5 93,115 mcmullen sheets 89.2% R+78.4 451 medina sheets 68.0% R+36.0 22,779 menard sheets 80.3% R+60.7 975 midland sheets 78.5% R+57.0 54,129 milam sheets 77.1% R+54.2 10,342 mills sheets 86.9% R+73.8 2,582 mitchell sheets 84.0% R+68.1 2,317 montague sheets 87.3% R+74.5 10,421 montgomery sheets 70.7% R+41.3 286,682 moore sheets 80.4% R+60.8 4,894 morris sheets 74.9% R+49.9 5,049 motley sheets 93.4% R+86.7 609 nacogdoches sheets 68.4% R+36.7 23,822 navarro sheets 73.4% R+46.7 18,518 newton sheets 83.1% R+66.3 5,358 nolan sheets 76.6% R+53.2 4,712 nueces sheets 51.2% R+2.4 111,191 ochiltree sheets 89.9% R+79.7 2,818 oldham sheets 90.3% R+80.6 917 orange sheets 82.2% R+64.4 33,843 palo pinto sheets 81.6% R+63.1 12,447 panola sheets 82.8% R+65.5 10,697 parker sheets 81.3% R+62.7 85,263 parmer sheets 83.8% R+67.6 2,324 pecos sheets 68.1% R+36.1 3,798 polk sheets 78.2% R+56.4 22,635 potter sheets 70.5% R+41.1 29,537 presidio tucker 67.7% D+35.4 1,798 rains sheets 84.9% R+69.9 6,141 randall sheets 78.7% R+57.4 62,723 reagan sheets 82.0% R+64.1 874 real sheets 82.0% R+64.0 1,834 red river sheets 79.9% R+59.9 5,393 reeves sheets 61.9% R+23.7 2,999 refugio sheets 66.7% R+33.5 2,816 roberts sheets 96.3% R+92.6 541 robertson sheets 75.0% R+50.0 7,604 rockwall sheets 67.9% R+35.7 58,252 runnels sheets 86.4% R+72.8 3,793 rusk sheets 78.8% R+57.6 20,088 sabine sheets 88.8% R+77.7 5,243 san augustine sheets 78.4% R+56.8 3,472 san jacinto sheets 81.3% R+62.6 11,901 san patricio sheets 64.0% R+28.1 23,485 san saba sheets 87.1% R+74.1 2,535 schleicher sheets 80.0% R+60.0 1,027 scurry sheets 84.6% R+69.2 5,246 shackelford sheets 89.5% R+79.0 1,628 shelby sheets 82.3% R+64.5 9,312 sherman sheets 90.3% R+80.5 839 smith sheets 71.5% R+43.1 96,267 somervell sheets 83.0% R+66.0 4,950 starr tucker 52.0% D+4.0 13,002 stephens sheets 87.5% R+74.9 3,516 sterling sheets 90.5% R+81.0 582 stonewall sheets 82.9% R+65.7 672 sutton sheets 81.4% R+62.9 1,303 swisher sheets 79.3% R+58.7 2,082 tarrant tucker 50.9% D+1.9 755,847 taylor sheets 72.8% R+45.5 51,541 terrell sheets 75.8% R+51.6 366 terry sheets 80.4% R+60.8 3,111 throckmorton sheets 90.7% R+81.4 847 titus sheets 75.9% R+51.9 9,471 tom green sheets 71.2% R+42.5 42,005 travis tucker 73.5% D+47.1 533,269 trinity sheets 82.1% R+64.1 6,878 tyler sheets 85.8% R+71.5 8,985 upshur sheets 84.6% R+69.2 18,616 upton sheets 85.9% R+71.7 1,176 uvalde sheets 61.0% R+21.9 8,865 val verde sheets 56.1% R+12.2 13,087 van zandt sheets 85.9% R+71.7 26,355 victoria sheets 69.4% R+38.9 32,553 walker sheets 68.4% R+36.8 23,262 waller sheets 61.1% R+22.1 25,319 ward sheets 79.6% R+59.2 3,462 washington sheets 76.2% R+52.5 17,004 webb tucker 57.6% D+15.2 58,218 wharton sheets 73.8% R+47.7 15,278 wheeler sheets 91.1% R+82.2 2,127 wichita sheets 70.7% R+41.4 41,225 wilbarger sheets 78.1% R+56.3 4,135 willacy tucker 57.7% D+15.3 4,953 williamson tucker 51.8% D+3.6 282,085 wilson sheets 73.7% R+47.3 25,402 winkler sheets 82.9% R+65.7 1,776 wise sheets 82.7% R+65.4 35,895 wood sheets 84.1% R+68.3 22,913 yoakum sheets 83.2% R+66.4 2,172 young sheets 86.7% R+73.3 7,827 zapata tucker 50.2% D+0.3 3,909 zavala tucker 65.7% D+31.4 2,971
the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
data · theoelections projection, 2026
