forecasts · by race
lieutenant governor, 2026
R+3.9 · lean R · patrick 73% to win
candidate party vote votes chance
goodwin democrat 48.0% 5,002,698 27% patrick republican 52.0% 5,409,246 73%
the 2026 forecast of the race for lieutenant governor in Texas, Goodwin against Patrick, counted on the two alone. open it on the forecast map , precinct by precinct.
by group of voters
group forecast lead votes
white voters patrick 62.6% R+25.3 6,487,590 hispanic voters goodwin 57.0% D+13.9 2,044,569 black voters goodwin 87.1% D+74.2 1,196,100 other voters goodwin 54.4% D+8.8 683,682
by county
county forecast lead votes
anderson patrick 77.9% R+55.9 17,978 andrews patrick 84.0% R+67.9 5,572 angelina patrick 73.5% R+47.0 31,770 aransas patrick 73.2% R+46.4 12,126 archer patrick 87.4% R+74.7 4,850 armstrong patrick 89.9% R+79.8 1,056 atascosa patrick 66.0% R+32.0 16,827 austin patrick 78.6% R+57.2 14,317 bailey patrick 79.2% R+58.4 1,601 bandera patrick 77.0% R+54.1 12,668 bastrop patrick 54.1% R+8.2 36,505 baylor patrick 86.4% R+72.8 1,565 bee patrick 64.8% R+29.6 8,034 bell patrick 53.7% R+7.4 118,745 bexar goodwin 60.8% D+21.6 684,996 blanco patrick 72.3% R+44.7 7,990 borden patrick 96.2% R+92.4 365 bosque patrick 79.5% R+59.0 8,987 bowie patrick 72.6% R+45.3 33,881 brazoria patrick 55.4% R+10.8 147,865 brazos patrick 58.0% R+16.1 84,694 brewster patrick 51.6% R+3.2 4,223 briscoe patrick 88.0% R+76.0 700 brooks goodwin 62.5% D+25.1 2,117 brown patrick 84.2% R+68.4 15,789 burleson patrick 79.0% R+58.0 8,722 burnet patrick 74.1% R+48.2 26,355 caldwell patrick 52.0% R+4.0 14,356 calhoun patrick 71.5% R+43.1 7,256 callahan patrick 85.7% R+71.4 6,564 cameron goodwin 54.1% D+8.2 105,297 camp patrick 74.4% R+48.7 4,902 carson patrick 87.9% R+75.7 2,960 cass patrick 81.4% R+62.8 13,306 castro patrick 77.6% R+55.2 1,849 chambers patrick 80.1% R+60.2 23,235 cherokee patrick 79.3% R+58.5 19,075 childress patrick 86.0% R+72.0 2,101 clay patrick 87.0% R+73.9 5,563 cochran patrick 81.7% R+63.3 815 coke patrick 86.3% R+72.5 1,714 coleman patrick 87.2% R+74.4 3,892 collin goodwin 51.3% D+2.7 469,922 collingsworth patrick 87.2% R+74.4 1,126 colorado patrick 75.8% R+51.6 9,317 comal patrick 68.6% R+37.2 96,523 comanche patrick 83.2% R+66.4 6,144 concho patrick 83.5% R+66.9 1,116 cooke patrick 79.7% R+59.4 19,101 coryell patrick 66.2% R+32.3 21,736 cottle patrick 84.2% R+68.4 606 crane patrick 84.0% R+68.1 1,244 crockett patrick 74.1% R+48.1 1,274 crosby patrick 73.8% R+47.7 1,721 culberson patrick 51.2% R+2.3 693 dallam patrick 87.6% R+75.2 1,323 dallas goodwin 67.3% D+34.6 769,768 dawson patrick 78.4% R+56.8 3,206 deaf smith patrick 73.7% R+47.5 3,935 delta patrick 81.0% R+61.9 2,498 denton patrick 50.7% R+1.4 414,378 dewitt patrick 80.5% R+61.0 7,289 dickens patrick 83.1% R+66.1 925 dimmit goodwin 60.1% D+20.2 2,946 donley patrick 87.1% R+74.1 1,577 duval goodwin 55.2% D+10.4 3,810 eastland patrick 86.1% R+72.2 7,827 ector patrick 72.8% R+45.7 39,230 edwards patrick 82.7% R+65.4 911 el paso goodwin 62.4% D+24.8 220,645 ellis patrick 61.4% R+22.8 91,824 erath patrick 80.4% R+60.8 17,094 falls patrick 69.5% R+39.0 5,835 fannin patrick 79.7% R+59.4 15,340 fayette patrick 77.7% R+55.4 12,522 fisher patrick 77.9% R+55.8 1,701 floyd patrick 78.4% R+56.8 1,928 foard patrick 80.1% R+60.2 511 fort bend goodwin 57.4% D+14.9 320,347 franklin patrick 81.7% R+63.4 4,997 freestone patrick 80.7% R+61.4 8,408 frio patrick 54.4% R+8.8 4,347 gaines patrick 90.4% R+80.9 5,988 galveston patrick 59.1% R+18.2 146,499 garza patrick 84.6% R+69.2 1,468 gillespie patrick 77.2% R+54.4 15,551 glasscock patrick 93.9% R+87.8 628 goliad patrick 76.5% R+53.0 3,699 gonzales patrick 73.7% R+47.4 7,108 gray patrick 86.9% R+73.9 7,051 grayson patrick 73.4% R+46.9 61,233 gregg patrick 68.7% R+37.4 43,248 grimes patrick 77.4% R+54.8 13,083 guadalupe patrick 59.8% R+19.6 77,818 hale patrick 76.2% R+52.4 8,515 hall patrick 84.6% R+69.2 1,062 hamilton patrick 82.5% R+65.0 4,213 hansford patrick 91.8% R+83.5 1,866 hardeman patrick 82.5% R+65.0 1,317 hardin patrick 85.7% R+71.5 26,466 harris goodwin 58.4% D+16.8 1,411,003 harrison patrick 74.0% R+48.0 28,117 hartley patrick 90.5% R+80.9 1,902 haskell patrick 82.3% R+64.6 2,089 hays goodwin 58.5% D+17.0 116,253 hemphill patrick 86.1% R+72.2 1,512 henderson patrick 78.1% R+56.2 35,911 hidalgo goodwin 55.2% D+10.5 194,038 hill patrick 78.3% R+56.7 15,643 hockley patrick 81.3% R+62.6 7,439 hood patrick 79.3% R+58.7 34,278 hopkins patrick 79.0% R+58.0 15,719 houston patrick 75.7% R+51.4 8,682 howard patrick 78.3% R+56.6 8,853 hudspeth patrick 69.2% R+38.5 924 hunt patrick 73.6% R+47.1 43,420 hutchinson patrick 86.8% R+73.6 7,658 irion patrick 84.5% R+69.0 814 jack patrick 88.4% R+76.8 3,953 jackson patrick 82.9% R+65.8 5,917 jasper patrick 81.6% R+63.3 14,844 jeff davis patrick 56.3% R+12.6 1,070 jefferson patrick 51.5% R+2.9 78,420 jim hogg goodwin 62.2% D+24.5 1,415 jim wells patrick 52.1% R+4.2 11,978 johnson patrick 71.2% R+42.5 74,789 jones patrick 83.6% R+67.2 6,448 karnes patrick 75.0% R+50.0 4,674 kaufman patrick 59.5% R+19.0 63,789 kendall patrick 74.4% R+48.8 27,556 kenedy patrick 64.2% R+28.4 133 kent patrick 85.4% R+70.8 423 kerr patrick 73.2% R+46.5 26,389 kimble patrick 85.8% R+71.5 2,243 king patrick 95.9% R+91.8 129 kinney patrick 69.2% R+38.4 1,295 kleberg patrick 50.5% R+1.0 9,136 knox patrick 79.9% R+59.8 1,285 la salle patrick 51.9% R+3.8 1,927 lamar patrick 77.4% R+54.7 19,869 lamb patrick 80.6% R+61.1 3,829 lampasas patrick 76.7% R+53.4 10,445 lavaca patrick 85.3% R+70.6 9,870 lee patrick 77.7% R+55.4 7,860 leon patrick 86.4% R+72.7 8,480 liberty patrick 77.8% R+55.5 28,997 limestone patrick 75.7% R+51.3 8,458 lipscomb patrick 87.8% R+75.6 1,170 live oak patrick 82.1% R+64.2 4,758 llano patrick 77.4% R+54.9 12,860 loving patrick 78.9% R+57.8 87 lubbock patrick 66.7% R+33.4 115,472 lynn patrick 84.1% R+68.2 2,369 madison patrick 80.0% R+60.1 5,079 marion patrick 75.2% R+50.4 4,386 martin patrick 85.9% R+71.9 1,927 mason patrick 80.0% R+60.1 2,373 matagorda patrick 71.5% R+42.9 12,332 maverick goodwin 50.2% D+0.4 13,284 mcculloch patrick 84.1% R+68.3 3,294 mclennan patrick 61.2% R+22.4 93,114 mcmullen patrick 89.4% R+78.7 451 medina patrick 67.2% R+34.5 22,779 menard patrick 79.1% R+58.3 975 midland patrick 77.8% R+55.6 54,129 milam patrick 75.4% R+50.7 10,342 mills patrick 85.6% R+71.1 2,582 mitchell patrick 83.5% R+66.9 2,317 montague patrick 85.8% R+71.6 10,421 montgomery patrick 68.7% R+37.5 286,683 moore patrick 80.0% R+60.0 4,894 morris patrick 73.4% R+46.9 5,049 motley patrick 92.7% R+85.3 609 nacogdoches patrick 66.5% R+32.9 23,822 navarro patrick 71.7% R+43.5 18,518 newton patrick 82.1% R+64.2 5,359 nolan patrick 75.2% R+50.3 4,712 nueces patrick 50.6% R+1.2 111,192 ochiltree patrick 89.6% R+79.3 2,819 oldham patrick 89.4% R+78.7 917 orange patrick 80.8% R+61.6 33,842 palo pinto patrick 79.8% R+59.6 12,448 panola patrick 81.4% R+62.8 10,696 parker patrick 79.6% R+59.2 85,262 parmer patrick 83.5% R+67.0 2,324 pecos patrick 68.3% R+36.6 3,798 polk patrick 76.3% R+52.7 22,635 potter patrick 69.0% R+38.0 29,538 presidio goodwin 67.9% D+35.7 1,798 rains patrick 83.3% R+66.7 6,141 randall patrick 77.1% R+54.2 62,723 reagan patrick 82.2% R+64.4 875 real patrick 80.6% R+61.3 1,834 red river patrick 78.5% R+56.9 5,393 reeves patrick 62.6% R+25.2 2,998 refugio patrick 66.1% R+32.2 2,816 roberts patrick 95.9% R+91.8 541 robertson patrick 73.5% R+47.1 7,604 rockwall patrick 65.8% R+31.5 58,252 runnels patrick 85.6% R+71.1 3,793 rusk patrick 77.4% R+54.9 20,088 sabine patrick 87.8% R+75.5 5,243 san augustine patrick 77.2% R+54.3 3,472 san jacinto patrick 79.8% R+59.7 11,901 san patricio patrick 63.4% R+26.8 23,485 san saba patrick 86.2% R+72.4 2,535 schleicher patrick 79.5% R+58.9 1,027 scurry patrick 84.1% R+68.3 5,245 shackelford patrick 88.4% R+76.7 1,628 shelby patrick 81.2% R+62.3 9,312 sherman patrick 89.7% R+79.4 839 smith patrick 70.1% R+40.1 96,267 somervell patrick 81.3% R+62.6 4,950 starr goodwin 50.1% D+0.1 13,003 stephens patrick 86.4% R+72.9 3,515 sterling patrick 90.1% R+80.2 582 stonewall patrick 81.1% R+62.3 672 sutton patrick 81.4% R+62.7 1,303 swisher patrick 78.3% R+56.6 2,082 tarrant goodwin 53.1% D+6.2 755,846 taylor patrick 71.0% R+42.1 51,541 terrell patrick 75.0% R+50.1 366 terry patrick 80.1% R+60.2 3,111 throckmorton patrick 89.6% R+79.3 847 titus patrick 74.8% R+49.6 9,471 tom green patrick 70.0% R+39.9 42,004 travis goodwin 75.2% D+50.5 533,268 trinity patrick 80.3% R+60.7 6,878 tyler patrick 84.4% R+68.8 8,985 upshur patrick 83.3% R+66.5 18,616 upton patrick 85.7% R+71.4 1,176 uvalde patrick 60.8% R+21.7 8,865 val verde patrick 56.5% R+13.0 13,086 van zandt patrick 84.5% R+68.9 26,356 victoria patrick 68.6% R+37.3 32,553 walker patrick 66.5% R+33.1 23,262 waller patrick 59.8% R+19.6 25,319 ward patrick 79.4% R+58.9 3,462 washington patrick 74.5% R+49.0 17,005 webb goodwin 56.1% D+12.2 58,219 wharton patrick 72.9% R+45.8 15,279 wheeler patrick 90.2% R+80.5 2,127 wichita patrick 68.8% R+37.6 41,225 wilbarger patrick 76.8% R+53.7 4,135 willacy goodwin 56.5% D+12.9 4,954 williamson goodwin 54.3% D+8.6 282,084 wilson patrick 72.7% R+45.4 25,402 winkler patrick 82.8% R+65.6 1,776 wise patrick 81.2% R+62.4 35,894 wood patrick 82.5% R+65.1 22,913 yoakum patrick 83.1% R+66.3 2,172 young patrick 85.3% R+70.6 7,827 zapata patrick 51.5% R+2.9 3,909 zavala goodwin 64.4% D+28.8 2,971
the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
data · theoelections projection, 2026
