forecasts · by race
governor, 2026
R+4.6 · likely R · abbott 77% to win
candidate party vote votes chance
hinojosa democrat 46.8% 4,986,972 23% abbott republican 51.3% 5,474,478 77% others 1.9% 202,616
the 2026 forecast of the race for governor in Texas, Hinojosa against Abbott. open it on the forecast map , precinct by precinct.
by group of voters
group forecast lead votes
white voters abbott 61.8% R+25.2 6,613,914 hispanic voters hinojosa 57.1% D+17.1 2,121,078 black voters hinojosa 81.6% D+64.8 1,221,119 other voters hinojosa 50.2% D+3.2 707,945
by county
county forecast lead votes
anderson abbott 77.9% R+57.1 18,276 andrews abbott 82.4% R+66.4 5,689 angelina abbott 72.5% R+46.7 32,419 aransas abbott 72.1% R+45.8 12,395 archer abbott 86.6% R+74.1 4,911 armstrong abbott 89.1% R+79.2 1,070 atascosa abbott 64.0% R+30.0 17,248 austin abbott 77.8% R+57.3 14,611 bailey abbott 77.5% R+56.6 1,635 bandera abbott 75.6% R+53.1 12,977 bastrop abbott 53.2% R+8.8 37,606 baylor abbott 84.9% R+71.7 1,603 bee abbott 63.2% R+28.1 8,211 bell abbott 53.1% R+8.3 121,979 bexar hinojosa 59.8% D+21.5 701,695 blanco abbott 71.2% R+44.1 8,163 borden abbott 95.3% R+91.5 369 bosque abbott 78.3% R+58.3 9,176 bowie abbott 72.4% R+46.0 34,415 brazoria abbott 55.1% R+12.3 151,764 brazos abbott 57.0% R+16.4 87,298 brewster abbott 50.3% R+2.7 4,341 briscoe abbott 86.6% R+74.9 714 brooks hinojosa 62.9% D+27.5 2,162 brown abbott 83.1% R+67.7 16,088 burleson abbott 78.5% R+58.7 8,902 burnet abbott 72.9% R+47.6 26,957 caldwell abbott 50.7% R+3.8 14,796 calhoun abbott 70.5% R+42.4 7,385 callahan abbott 84.4% R+70.5 6,698 cameron hinojosa 54.3% D+10.6 107,908 camp abbott 74.8% R+50.8 4,973 carson abbott 86.5% R+74.6 3,021 cass abbott 81.8% R+64.6 13,479 castro abbott 75.8% R+53.4 1,893 chambers abbott 79.1% R+59.9 23,723 cherokee abbott 78.9% R+59.4 19,470 childress abbott 85.4% R+72.2 2,139 clay abbott 86.0% R+73.3 5,648 cochran abbott 79.6% R+61.4 838 coke abbott 85.5% R+71.8 1,733 coleman abbott 86.2% R+73.7 3,956 collin hinojosa 49.3% D+0.4 480,229 collingsworth abbott 87.0% R+74.9 1,137 colorado abbott 75.6% R+52.4 9,467 comal abbott 67.3% R+36.4 98,828 comanche abbott 82.1% R+65.5 6,248 concho abbott 82.3% R+65.9 1,134 cooke abbott 78.7% R+59.0 19,478 coryell abbott 65.1% R+32.7 22,423 cottle abbott 83.6% R+68.3 614 crane abbott 82.6% R+66.6 1,266 crockett abbott 71.8% R+45.7 1,308 crosby abbott 72.0% R+46.3 1,771 culberson abbott 49.7% R+0.6 703 dallam abbott 85.7% R+73.5 1,359 dallas hinojosa 65.3% D+32.4 787,859 dawson abbott 76.8% R+55.4 3,283 deaf smith abbott 71.9% R+45.4 4,018 delta abbott 80.5% R+62.4 2,540 denton abbott 50.6% R+3.0 423,590 dewitt abbott 79.8% R+60.8 7,400 dickens abbott 81.8% R+65.1 942 dimmit hinojosa 59.9% D+22.0 3,030 donley abbott 86.5% R+74.1 1,601 duval hinojosa 55.3% D+12.9 3,917 eastland abbott 85.0% R+71.5 7,966 ector abbott 71.2% R+44.2 40,099 edwards abbott 80.9% R+63.6 933 el paso hinojosa 61.1% D+25.5 230,090 ellis abbott 60.8% R+23.3 93,782 erath abbott 79.1% R+59.9 17,457 falls abbott 69.2% R+40.1 5,961 fannin abbott 78.9% R+59.4 15,653 fayette abbott 77.1% R+55.5 12,737 fisher abbott 76.9% R+55.3 1,732 floyd abbott 76.7% R+55.2 1,972 foard abbott 79.4% R+59.7 516 fort bend hinojosa 55.0% D+12.1 329,081 franklin abbott 81.3% R+63.6 5,061 freestone abbott 80.7% R+62.8 8,560 frio abbott 52.6% R+7.2 4,454 gaines abbott 89.2% R+79.7 6,089 galveston abbott 58.3% R+18.5 150,240 garza abbott 83.8% R+69.0 1,493 gillespie abbott 76.0% R+53.6 15,872 glasscock abbott 92.9% R+86.7 634 goliad abbott 75.6% R+52.6 3,763 gonzales abbott 72.6% R+47.1 7,277 gray abbott 85.8% R+73.3 7,197 grayson abbott 72.5% R+46.5 62,492 gregg abbott 67.8% R+37.3 44,175 grimes abbott 77.0% R+55.4 13,330 guadalupe abbott 58.8% R+19.6 79,840 hale abbott 74.4% R+50.8 8,743 hall abbott 83.7% R+68.7 1,081 hamilton abbott 81.2% R+64.1 4,302 hansford abbott 90.5% R+82.1 1,895 hardeman abbott 82.1% R+65.2 1,334 hardin abbott 85.0% R+71.3 26,918 harris hinojosa 56.6% D+15.4 1,449,282 harrison abbott 73.9% R+49.3 28,620 hartley abbott 90.1% R+80.9 1,917 haskell abbott 81.2% R+64.1 2,132 hays hinojosa 57.2% D+16.7 119,746 hemphill abbott 85.0% R+71.2 1,535 henderson abbott 77.4% R+56.3 36,596 hidalgo hinojosa 55.4% D+12.9 198,989 hill abbott 77.4% R+56.5 15,959 hockley abbott 80.0% R+61.5 7,593 hood abbott 78.2% R+58.0 34,993 hopkins abbott 78.4% R+58.3 15,999 houston abbott 76.1% R+53.5 8,821 howard abbott 76.6% R+55.1 9,069 hudspeth abbott 66.9% R+36.4 954 hunt abbott 72.7% R+47.1 44,365 hutchinson abbott 85.4% R+72.5 7,825 irion abbott 83.1% R+67.7 830 jack abbott 87.5% R+76.2 4,015 jackson abbott 82.4% R+65.8 5,993 jasper abbott 81.9% R+64.8 15,034 jeff davis abbott 54.9% R+12.3 1,105 jefferson abbott 51.4% R+4.1 79,731 jim hogg hinojosa 63.2% D+27.2 1,430 jim wells abbott 50.1% R+2.1 12,252 johnson abbott 70.1% R+42.2 76,690 jones abbott 83.0% R+67.6 6,574 karnes abbott 73.9% R+49.2 4,761 kaufman abbott 59.2% R+20.0 65,111 kendall abbott 73.3% R+48.0 28,075 kenedy abbott 61.7% R+25.7 136 kent abbott 84.3% R+69.9 430 kerr abbott 72.0% R+45.8 26,972 kimble abbott 84.5% R+70.4 2,283 king abbott 95.9% R+91.8 129 kinney abbott 67.6% R+36.7 1,320 kleberg hinojosa 49.3% D+0.4 9,348 knox abbott 79.3% R+59.7 1,303 la salle abbott 49.5% R+1.6 1,991 lamar abbott 77.1% R+55.4 20,161 lamb abbott 78.9% R+59.8 3,921 lampasas abbott 75.6% R+53.1 10,696 lavaca abbott 84.8% R+70.5 9,989 lee abbott 77.4% R+56.2 7,992 leon abbott 85.6% R+72.7 8,632 liberty abbott 77.0% R+55.7 29,615 limestone abbott 75.7% R+52.7 8,593 lipscomb abbott 86.6% R+74.6 1,192 live oak abbott 80.9% R+63.0 4,829 llano abbott 76.4% R+54.3 13,098 loving abbott 77.0% R+56.5 89 lubbock abbott 65.3% R+32.7 118,571 lynn abbott 82.8% R+67.0 2,410 madison abbott 80.3% R+62.0 5,168 marion abbott 75.8% R+53.0 4,465 martin abbott 84.3% R+70.4 1,972 mason abbott 79.0% R+59.3 2,411 matagorda abbott 70.9% R+43.2 12,559 maverick hinojosa 50.1% D+3.3 13,834 mcculloch abbott 82.8% R+67.1 3,353 mclennan abbott 60.3% R+22.4 95,101 mcmullen abbott 88.2% R+77.2 456 medina abbott 65.7% R+33.2 23,284 menard abbott 77.8% R+57.1 992 midland abbott 76.4% R+54.6 55,342 milam abbott 74.7% R+50.9 10,559 mills abbott 84.5% R+70.3 2,623 mitchell abbott 82.7% R+66.7 2,354 montague abbott 84.7% R+70.7 10,595 montgomery abbott 68.0% R+37.5 292,198 moore abbott 78.3% R+58.3 4,996 morris abbott 74.0% R+49.2 5,123 motley abbott 91.7% R+84.5 617 nacogdoches abbott 66.2% R+34.0 24,276 navarro abbott 71.3% R+44.0 18,849 newton abbott 82.6% R+66.1 5,423 nolan abbott 73.9% R+49.5 4,815 nueces abbott 49.2% R+0.3 113,990 ochiltree abbott 88.3% R+77.8 2,863 oldham abbott 88.8% R+78.3 924 orange abbott 80.0% R+61.3 34,432 palo pinto abbott 78.6% R+58.9 12,713 panola abbott 81.6% R+64.1 10,832 parker abbott 78.3% R+58.3 87,080 parmer abbott 82.1% R+65.4 2,362 pecos abbott 66.2% R+34.7 3,910 polk abbott 75.9% R+53.2 23,053 potter abbott 67.7% R+37.5 30,342 presidio hinojosa 67.6% D+36.8 1,836 rains abbott 82.3% R+66.2 6,263 randall abbott 76.0% R+53.5 63,962 reagan abbott 80.8% R+62.9 890 real abbott 79.2% R+60.0 1,872 red river abbott 78.4% R+58.1 5,479 reeves abbott 60.0% R+22.8 3,104 refugio abbott 64.9% R+31.5 2,882 roberts abbott 94.7% R+90.7 549 robertson abbott 73.5% R+48.2 7,732 rockwall abbott 65.4% R+32.2 59,316 runnels abbott 84.4% R+70.2 3,862 rusk abbott 77.6% R+56.6 20,425 sabine abbott 87.5% R+75.9 5,304 san augustine abbott 77.1% R+55.7 3,534 san jacinto abbott 79.4% R+60.5 12,143 san patricio abbott 61.7% R+25.4 24,081 san saba abbott 85.2% R+71.7 2,575 schleicher abbott 77.9% R+57.4 1,047 scurry abbott 82.5% R+66.9 5,375 shackelford abbott 87.6% R+76.1 1,647 shelby abbott 81.7% R+64.2 9,404 sherman abbott 88.4% R+78.0 852 smith abbott 69.5% R+40.6 98,214 somervell abbott 79.9% R+61.5 5,064 starr hinojosa 50.8% D+3.6 13,337 stephens abbott 85.5% R+72.3 3,574 sterling abbott 88.1% R+78.2 596 stonewall abbott 80.1% R+61.5 682 sutton abbott 79.9% R+61.0 1,323 swisher abbott 77.2% R+56.2 2,129 tarrant hinojosa 51.2% D+4.4 774,526 taylor abbott 69.9% R+41.6 52,744 terrell abbott 73.5% R+48.4 373 terry abbott 78.5% R+58.8 3,182 throckmorton abbott 89.0% R+78.7 855 titus abbott 74.3% R+50.1 9,656 tom green abbott 68.4% R+38.8 43,100 travis hinojosa 73.4% D+48.7 546,364 trinity abbott 80.0% R+61.4 6,999 tyler abbott 83.9% R+69.3 9,146 upshur abbott 82.5% R+66.6 18,993 upton abbott 83.7% R+69.5 1,205 uvalde abbott 58.7% R+19.7 9,127 val verde abbott 54.2% R+10.9 13,501 van zandt abbott 83.6% R+68.5 26,798 victoria abbott 67.4% R+36.2 33,169 walker abbott 66.8% R+35.2 23,710 waller abbott 59.3% R+20.5 25,906 ward abbott 77.8% R+57.5 3,543 washington abbott 74.3% R+49.9 17,303 webb hinojosa 56.3% D+14.9 59,916 wharton abbott 72.6% R+46.4 15,521 wheeler abbott 89.2% R+79.7 2,161 wichita abbott 67.8% R+37.4 42,176 wilbarger abbott 76.1% R+53.8 4,219 willacy hinojosa 56.5% D+15.3 5,102 williamson hinojosa 52.7% D+7.6 290,051 wilson abbott 71.3% R+44.1 25,920 winkler abbott 81.5% R+64.2 1,802 wise abbott 80.0% R+61.6 36,592 wood abbott 81.7% R+64.8 23,332 yoakum abbott 81.1% R+64.1 2,224 young abbott 84.4% R+69.9 7,941 zapata hinojosa 49.1% D+0.3 4,014 zavala hinojosa 63.9% D+30.5 3,072
the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
data · theoelections projection, 2026
