forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 30, 2026
safe D · democrat >99% to win · D+53.4
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 76.7% | 169,619 | >99% | |
| republican | 23.3% | 51,555 | <1% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 30th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 30
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 77.5% | D+57.6 | 222,345 | |
| governor | hinojosa 75.6% | D+53.1 | 222,346 | |
| railroad commissioner | rosenthal 78.8% | D+57.7 | 217,213 | |
| lieutenant governor | goodwin 78.3% | D+56.6 | 217,214 | |
| attorney general | johnson 78.1% | D+56.2 | 217,215 | |
| comptroller | eckhardt 77.2% | D+54.4 | 217,213 | |
| land commissioner | flores 78.1% | D+56.1 | 217,214 | |
| agriculture commissioner | tucker 77.7% | D+55.4 | 217,213 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026