forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 31, 2026
safe R · republican 96% to win · R+11.5
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 44.3% | 145,380 | 4% | |
| republican | 55.7% | 183,058 | 96% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 31st Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 31
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 51.4% | R+5.8 | 330,053 | |
| governor | abbott 55.6% | R+13.2 | 330,053 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 56.4% | R+12.9 | 321,435 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 56.3% | R+12.7 | 321,436 | |
| attorney general | middleton 56.9% | R+13.9 | 321,435 | |
| comptroller | huffines 58.4% | R+16.8 | 321,436 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 58.5% | R+17.1 | 321,435 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 58.5% | R+17.1 | 321,436 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026