forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 1, 2026
safe R · republican >99% to win · R+45.8
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 27.1% | 83,184 | <1% | |
| republican | 72.9% | 223,976 | >99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 1st Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 1
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 69.4% | R+40.9 | 307,754 | |
| governor | abbott 72.3% | R+46.0 | 307,754 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 72.6% | R+45.3 | 302,163 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 72.7% | R+45.3 | 302,164 | |
| attorney general | middleton 72.9% | R+45.8 | 302,164 | |
| comptroller | huffines 74.1% | R+48.2 | 302,165 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 74.0% | R+47.9 | 302,165 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 74.1% | R+48.2 | 302,165 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026