forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 38, 2026
safe R · republican 92% to win · R+9.1
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 45.5% | 149,055 | 8% | |
| republican | 54.5% | 178,910 | 92% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 38th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 38
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 49.8% | R+2.5 | 333,594 | |
| governor | abbott 54.4% | R+10.7 | 333,593 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 54.7% | R+9.4 | 325,305 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 54.7% | R+9.4 | 325,305 | |
| attorney general | middleton 55.5% | R+10.9 | 325,305 | |
| comptroller | huffines 56.8% | R+13.6 | 325,305 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 56.8% | R+13.6 | 325,304 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 56.9% | R+13.8 | 325,305 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026