forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 21, 2026
safe R · republican 92% to win · R+9.0
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 45.5% | 177,535 | 8% | |
| republican | 54.5% | 212,762 | 92% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 21st Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 21
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 51.1% | R+4.7 | 392,648 | |
| governor | abbott 55.2% | R+12.3 | 392,648 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 56.2% | R+12.4 | 383,835 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 56.3% | R+12.5 | 383,835 | |
| attorney general | middleton 56.8% | R+13.6 | 383,835 | |
| comptroller | huffines 58.3% | R+16.5 | 383,836 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 58.2% | R+16.3 | 383,835 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 58.2% | R+16.4 | 383,835 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026