forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 22, 2026
safe R · republican 96% to win · R+10.8
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 44.6% | 137,337 | 4% | |
| republican | 55.4% | 170,435 | 96% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 22nd Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 22
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 50.7% | R+4.3 | 310,942 | |
| governor | abbott 55.0% | R+12.1 | 310,940 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 55.2% | R+10.3 | 302,800 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 55.3% | R+10.6 | 302,800 | |
| attorney general | middleton 56.1% | R+12.2 | 302,800 | |
| comptroller | huffines 57.1% | R+14.2 | 302,800 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 57.0% | R+13.9 | 302,799 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 57.1% | R+14.2 | 302,801 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026