forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 23, 2026
lean D · democrat 63% to win · D+2.0
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 51.0% | 152,004 | 63% | |
| republican | 49.0% | 145,948 | 37% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 23
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 51.2% | D+5.2 | 295,958 | |
| governor | abbott 50.5% | R+2.9 | 295,957 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 51.0% | R+1.9 | 288,879 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 51.8% | R+3.5 | 288,878 | |
| attorney general | middleton 52.1% | R+4.2 | 288,877 | |
| comptroller | huffines 53.5% | R+7.0 | 288,878 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 52.4% | R+4.8 | 288,878 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 52.7% | R+5.3 | 288,877 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026