forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 9, 2026
likely R · republican 85% to win · R+6.5
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 46.8% | 86,761 | 15% | |
| republican | 53.3% | 98,820 | 85% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 9th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 9
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 49.1% | R+1.4 | 185,181 | |
| governor | abbott 53.0% | R+8.3 | 185,180 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 53.6% | R+7.1 | 180,104 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 54.4% | R+8.8 | 180,105 | |
| attorney general | middleton 54.6% | R+9.2 | 180,103 | |
| comptroller | huffines 55.7% | R+11.5 | 180,104 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 54.6% | R+9.1 | 180,104 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 54.9% | R+9.7 | 180,103 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026