forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 10, 2026
safe R · republican 98% to win · R+13.2
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 43.4% | 143,680 | 2% | |
| republican | 56.6% | 187,437 | 98% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 10th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 10
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 52.6% | R+7.7 | 334,483 | |
| governor | abbott 56.5% | R+14.7 | 334,482 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 57.1% | R+14.2 | 326,887 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 57.0% | R+13.9 | 326,888 | |
| attorney general | middleton 57.5% | R+15.1 | 326,886 | |
| comptroller | huffines 59.0% | R+18.0 | 326,888 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 59.2% | R+18.4 | 326,889 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 59.2% | R+18.4 | 326,886 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026