forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 34, 2026
safe D · democrat 95% to win · D+10.7
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 55.4% | 124,575 | 95% | |
| republican | 44.6% | 100,414 | 5% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 34th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 34
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 54.8% | D+12.3 | 224,208 | |
| governor | hinojosa 50.9% | D+3.8 | 224,209 | |
| railroad commissioner | rosenthal 52.5% | D+5.0 | 218,793 | |
| lieutenant governor | goodwin 51.1% | D+2.1 | 218,793 | |
| attorney general | johnson 51.0% | D+1.9 | 218,792 | |
| comptroller | huffines 50.3% | R+0.6 | 218,793 | |
| land commissioner | flores 51.6% | D+3.3 | 218,793 | |
| agriculture commissioner | tucker 51.2% | D+2.4 | 218,791 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026