forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 5, 2026
safe R · republican 99% to win · R+13.8
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 43.1% | 118,049 | 1% | |
| republican | 56.9% | 156,004 | 99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 5th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 5
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 52.2% | R+6.7 | 274,851 | |
| governor | abbott 55.8% | R+13.3 | 274,849 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 55.8% | R+11.7 | 269,373 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 56.0% | R+12.0 | 269,374 | |
| attorney general | middleton 56.4% | R+12.8 | 269,373 | |
| comptroller | huffines 57.8% | R+15.5 | 269,373 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 57.5% | R+15.0 | 269,373 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 57.7% | R+15.4 | 269,373 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026