forecasts · by race · U.S. house
congressional district 4, 2026
safe R · republican 99% to win · R+14.6
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 42.7% | 144,890 | 1% | |
| republican | 57.3% | 194,533 | 99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas’s 4th Congressional District, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in CD 4
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 52.5% | R+7.1 | 343,410 | |
| governor | abbott 56.6% | R+14.7 | 343,409 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 56.7% | R+13.5 | 337,053 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 56.5% | R+13.0 | 337,054 | |
| attorney general | middleton 57.4% | R+14.8 | 337,054 | |
| comptroller | huffines 58.5% | R+17.0 | 337,055 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 58.9% | R+17.8 | 337,054 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 58.9% | R+17.8 | 337,054 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026