state house, 2026
150 seats · 76 for a majority · democrats 72.0 on average, republicans 78.0 · republican majority 73%
the 2026 forecast for the Texas state house, district by district. the vote is the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican: R+4.3, democrats 47.9% and republicans 52.1%. 17 seats are unopposed. open it on the forecast map.
| district | rating | lead | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD 1 | safe R | R+53.1 | republican >99% | |
| HD 2 | safe R | R+54.6 | republican >99% | |
| HD 3 | safe R | R+43.4 | republican >99% | |
| HD 4 | safe R | R+33.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 5 | safe R | R+60.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 6 | safe R | R+39.0 | republican >99% | |
| HD 7 | safe R | R+45.0 | republican >99% | |
| HD 8 | safe R | R+57.9 | republican >99% | |
| HD 9 | safe R | R+55.7 | republican >99% | |
| HD 10 | safe R | R+23.6 | republican >99% | |
| HD 11 | safe R | R+52.9 | republican >99% | |
| HD 12 | safe R | R+48.8 | republican >99% | |
| HD 13 | safe R | R+47.0 | republican >99% | |
| HD 14 | safe R | R+10.2 | republican 95% | |
| HD 15 | safe R | R+18.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 16 | safe R | R+54.1 | republican >99% | |
| HD 17 | safe R | R+22.8 | republican >99% | |
| HD 18 | safe R | R+60.4 | republican >99% | |
| HD 19 | safe R | R+37.0 | republican >99% | |
| HD 20 | likely R | R+7.7 | republican 89% | |
| HD 21 | safe R | R+53.9 | republican >99% | |
| HD 22 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 23 | safe R | R+25.6 | republican >99% | |
| HD 24 | safe R | R+28.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 25 | safe R | R+16.2 | republican 99% | |
| HD 26 | likely R | R+5.3 | republican 80% | |
| HD 27 | safe D | D+47.5 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 28 | safe R | R+8.8 | republican 92% | |
| HD 29 | safe R | R+12.8 | republican 98% | |
| HD 30 | safe R | R+45.1 | republican >99% | |
| HD 31 | safe R | R+35.1 | republican >99% | |
| HD 32 | safe R | R+23.1 | republican >99% | |
| HD 33 | safe R | R+21.3 | republican >99% | |
| HD 34 | safe D | D+8.2 | democrat 90% | |
| HD 35 | safe D | D+28.2 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 36 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 37 | safe D | D+12.4 | democrat 98% | |
| HD 38 | safe D | D+26.2 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 39 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 40 | safe D | D+25.6 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 41 | safe D | D+30.3 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 42 | safe D | D+44.8 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 43 | safe R | R+17.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 44 | safe R | R+18.3 | republican >99% | |
| HD 45 | safe D | D+27.9 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 46 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 47 | safe D | D+33.6 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 48 | safe D | D+53.2 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 49 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 50 | safe D | D+58.8 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 51 | safe D | D+63.4 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 52 | tossup | D+0.2 | democrat 51% | |
| HD 53 | safe R | R+46.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 54 | safe R | R+14.9 | republican 99% | |
| HD 55 | likely R | R+5.1 | republican 79% | |
| HD 56 | safe R | R+27.7 | republican >99% | |
| HD 57 | safe R | R+10.4 | republican 95% | |
| HD 58 | safe R | R+45.0 | republican >99% | |
| HD 59 | safe R | R+54.3 | republican >99% | |
| HD 60 | safe R | R+60.2 | republican >99% | |
| HD 61 | likely R | R+7.5 | republican 88% | |
| HD 62 | safe R | R+47.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 63 | tossup | D+1.4 | democrat 59% | |
| HD 64 | safe R | R+17.6 | republican >99% | |
| HD 65 | safe R | R+9.3 | republican 93% | |
| HD 66 | safe R | R+11.1 | republican 96% | |
| HD 67 | safe R | R+10.0 | republican 94% | |
| HD 68 | safe R | R+68.5 | republican >99% | |
| HD 69 | safe R | R+50.1 | republican >99% | |
| HD 70 | safe D | D+17.9 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 71 | safe R | R+55.1 | republican >99% | |
| HD 72 | safe R | R+46.7 | republican >99% | |
| HD 73 | safe R | R+31.8 | republican >99% | |
| HD 74 | safe D | D+22.9 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 75 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 76 | safe D | D+26.4 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 77 | safe D | D+50.7 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 78 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 79 | safe D | D+39.5 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 80 | tossup | D+0.4 | democrat 52% | |
| HD 81 | safe R | R+42.0 | republican >99% | |
| HD 82 | safe R | R+57.2 | republican >99% | |
| HD 83 | safe R | R+46.7 | republican >99% | |
| HD 84 | safe R | R+15.4 | republican 99% | |
| HD 85 | safe R | R+37.3 | republican >99% | |
| HD 86 | safe R | R+52.9 | republican >99% | |
| HD 87 | safe R | R+49.6 | republican >99% | |
| HD 88 | safe R | R+62.8 | republican >99% | |
| HD 89 | safe R | R+10.4 | republican 95% | |
| HD 90 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 91 | safe R | R+9.4 | republican 93% | |
| HD 92 | safe D | D+24.0 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 93 | safe R | R+10.2 | republican 95% | |
| HD 94 | tossup | R+0.1 | republican 51% | |
| HD 95 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 96 | likely R | R+6.4 | republican 85% | |
| HD 97 | likely R | R+6.1 | republican 83% | |
| HD 98 | safe R | R+19.8 | republican >99% | |
| HD 99 | safe R | R+15.4 | republican 99% | |
| HD 100 | safe D | D+62.3 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 101 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 102 | safe D | D+28.7 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 103 | safe D | D+47.8 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 104 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 105 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 106 | safe R | R+10.5 | republican 95% | |
| HD 107 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 108 | lean R | R+3.9 | republican 73% | |
| HD 109 | safe D | D+55.8 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 110 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 111 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 112 | lean D | D+3.7 | democrat 72% | |
| HD 113 | safe D | D+22.9 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 114 | safe D | D+36.9 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 115 | safe D | D+22.6 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 116 | safe D | D+48.4 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 117 | safe D | D+32.0 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 118 | safe D | D+14.0 | democrat 99% | |
| HD 119 | safe D | D+42.4 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 120 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 121 | safe D | D+10.5 | democrat 95% | |
| HD 122 | tossup | R+1.1 | republican 57% | |
| HD 123 | safe D · unopposed, no republican is running | |||
| HD 124 | safe D | D+41.4 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 125 | safe D | D+33.6 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 126 | likely R | R+6.9 | republican 86% | |
| HD 127 | safe R | R+12.4 | republican 97% | |
| HD 128 | safe R | R+30.0 | republican >99% | |
| HD 129 | likely R | R+7.6 | republican 89% | |
| HD 130 | safe R | R+27.6 | republican >99% | |
| HD 131 | safe D | D+56.8 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 132 | likely R | R+5.7 | republican 82% | |
| HD 133 | safe R | R+10.6 | republican 95% | |
| HD 134 | safe D | D+35.6 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 135 | safe D | D+17.1 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 136 | safe D | D+37.8 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 137 | safe D | D+31.1 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 138 | tossup | D+0.2 | democrat 51% | |
| HD 139 | safe D | D+47.1 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 140 | safe D | D+37.1 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 141 | safe D | D+57.6 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 142 | safe D | D+46.4 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 143 | safe D | D+31.0 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 144 | safe D | D+17.5 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 145 | safe D | D+46.8 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 146 | safe D | D+61.6 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 147 | safe D | D+58.9 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 148 | safe D | D+24.7 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 149 | safe D | D+28.1 | democrat >99% | |
| HD 150 | safe R | R+8.8 | republican 92% | |
- the map: each district by its rating, or by its margin; its precincts and counties by the margin. ruled: no race there in 2026.
- a rating is the leader’s chance: 50 to 60 tossup, 60 to 75 lean, 75 to 90 likely, 90 to 100 safe.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026