forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 54, 2026
safe R · republican 99% to win · R+14.9
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 42.6% | 22,658 | 1% | |
| republican | 57.4% | 30,577 | 99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 54, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 54
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 50.2% | R+3.4 | 54,711 | |
| governor | abbott 53.8% | R+9.8 | 54,710 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 54.3% | R+8.6 | 53,232 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 54.4% | R+8.7 | 53,231 | |
| attorney general | middleton 54.9% | R+9.8 | 53,232 | |
| comptroller | huffines 56.0% | R+12.0 | 53,232 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 55.9% | R+11.8 | 53,232 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 56.0% | R+12.0 | 53,232 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026