forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 53, 2026
safe R · republican >99% to win · R+46.5
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 26.8% | 24,900 | <1% | |
| republican | 73.2% | 68,149 | >99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 53, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 53
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 69.2% | R+40.8 | 98,235 | |
| governor | abbott 72.9% | R+47.5 | 98,234 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 74.1% | R+48.3 | 96,147 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 74.3% | R+48.6 | 96,147 | |
| attorney general | middleton 74.6% | R+49.3 | 96,147 | |
| comptroller | huffines 75.9% | R+51.9 | 96,147 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 75.7% | R+51.4 | 96,148 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 75.7% | R+51.5 | 96,147 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026