forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 1, 2026
safe R · republican >99% to win · R+53.1
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 23.4% | 18,498 | <1% | |
| republican | 76.6% | 60,410 | >99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 1, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 1
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 73.0% | R+47.7 | 78,657 | |
| governor | abbott 75.7% | R+52.6 | 78,657 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 75.9% | R+51.7 | 77,497 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 75.8% | R+51.6 | 77,497 | |
| attorney general | middleton 76.0% | R+52.1 | 77,499 | |
| comptroller | huffines 77.2% | R+54.4 | 77,498 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 77.2% | R+54.3 | 77,498 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 77.3% | R+54.6 | 77,497 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026