forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 126, 2026
likely R · republican 86% to win · R+6.9
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 46.5% | 34,837 | 14% | |
| republican | 53.5% | 40,008 | 86% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 126, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 126
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 48.8% | R+0.5 | 76,059 | |
| governor | abbott 53.3% | R+8.7 | 76,058 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 53.4% | R+6.8 | 74,050 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 53.5% | R+7.1 | 74,050 | |
| attorney general | middleton 54.2% | R+8.4 | 74,050 | |
| comptroller | huffines 55.6% | R+11.1 | 74,050 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 55.4% | R+10.8 | 74,050 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 55.6% | R+11.1 | 74,050 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026