forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 38, 2026
safe D · democrat >99% to win · D+26.2
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 63.1% | 27,488 | >99% | |
| republican | 36.9% | 16,060 | <1% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 38, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 38
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 61.9% | D+27.1 | 43,212 | |
| governor | hinojosa 58.1% | D+18.5 | 43,212 | |
| railroad commissioner | rosenthal 60.2% | D+20.5 | 41,966 | |
| lieutenant governor | goodwin 58.1% | D+16.1 | 41,966 | |
| attorney general | johnson 58.2% | D+16.4 | 41,966 | |
| comptroller | eckhardt 57.1% | D+14.2 | 41,966 | |
| land commissioner | flores 60.0% | D+20.0 | 41,966 | |
| agriculture commissioner | tucker 59.3% | D+18.7 | 41,966 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026