forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 5, 2026
safe R · republican >99% to win · R+60.5
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 19.8% | 16,456 | <1% | |
| republican | 80.3% | 66,855 | >99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 5, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 5
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 76.5% | R+55.1 | 83,517 | |
| governor | abbott 79.4% | R+60.3 | 83,517 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 80.0% | R+60.1 | 81,934 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 80.0% | R+60.1 | 81,935 | |
| attorney general | middleton 80.3% | R+60.6 | 81,935 | |
| comptroller | huffines 81.4% | R+62.8 | 81,935 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 81.3% | R+62.7 | 81,935 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 81.4% | R+62.9 | 81,935 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026