forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 138, 2026
tossup · democrat 51% to win · D+0.2
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 50.1% | 34,734 | 51% | |
| republican | 49.9% | 34,594 | 49% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 138, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 138
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 54.1% | D+11.2 | 71,217 | |
| governor | hinojosa 50.3% | D+2.8 | 71,216 | |
| railroad commissioner | rosenthal 52.0% | D+4.1 | 69,365 | |
| lieutenant governor | goodwin 51.9% | D+3.9 | 69,365 | |
| attorney general | johnson 51.1% | D+2.2 | 69,364 | |
| comptroller | huffines 50.1% | R+0.2 | 69,365 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 50.1% | R+0.2 | 69,365 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 50.2% | R+0.3 | 69,365 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026