forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 51, 2026
safe D · democrat >99% to win · D+63.4
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 81.7% | 51,693 | >99% | |
| republican | 18.3% | 11,582 | <1% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 51, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 51
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 82.2% | D+67.8 | 63,899 | |
| governor | hinojosa 80.7% | D+63.9 | 63,898 | |
| railroad commissioner | rosenthal 83.2% | D+66.4 | 61,967 | |
| lieutenant governor | goodwin 82.9% | D+65.8 | 61,966 | |
| attorney general | johnson 82.5% | D+65.0 | 61,967 | |
| comptroller | eckhardt 81.8% | D+63.7 | 61,967 | |
| land commissioner | flores 82.2% | D+64.3 | 61,966 | |
| agriculture commissioner | tucker 82.1% | D+64.1 | 61,966 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026