forecasts · by race · state house
state house district 15, 2026
safe R · republican >99% to win · R+18.5
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 40.8% | 37,436 | <1% | |
| republican | 59.2% | 54,390 | >99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas House District 15, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in HD 15
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 54.0% | R+10.4 | 93,038 | |
| governor | abbott 58.5% | R+18.5 | 93,039 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 59.0% | R+17.9 | 91,170 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 58.8% | R+17.6 | 91,171 | |
| attorney general | middleton 59.5% | R+18.9 | 91,170 | |
| comptroller | huffines 61.1% | R+22.1 | 91,170 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 61.2% | R+22.5 | 91,170 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 61.3% | R+22.5 | 91,170 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026