state senate, 2026

the 2026 forecast for the Texas state senate, district by district. the vote is the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican: R+13.5, democrats 43.2% and republicans 56.8% in the 16 seats up. 2 seats are unopposed. open it on the forecast map.

district		rating	lead	chance
SD 1		safe R	R+50.3	republican >99%
SD 2		safe R	R+14.9	republican 99%
SD 3		safe R	R+49.3	republican >99%
SD 4		safe R	R+28.6	republican >99%
SD 5		safe R	R+13.0	republican 98%
SD 6		not up in 2026
SD 7		not up in 2026
SD 8		not up in 2026
SD 9		tossup	D+1.4	democrat 59%
SD 10		not up in 2026
SD 11		safe R	R+9.5	republican 93%
SD 12		not up in 2026
SD 13		safe D · unopposed, no republican is running
SD 14		not up in 2026
SD 15		not up in 2026
SD 16		not up in 2026
SD 17		not up in 2026
SD 18		safe R	R+22.0	republican >99%
SD 19		safe D	D+19.0	democrat >99%
SD 20		not up in 2026
SD 21		safe D	D+29.3	democrat >99%
SD 22		safe R	R+20.0	republican >99%
SD 23		not up in 2026
SD 24		safe R	R+16.7	republican >99%
SD 25		not up in 2026
SD 26		safe D · unopposed, no republican is running
SD 27		not up in 2026
SD 28		safe R	R+42.3	republican >99%
SD 29		not up in 2026
SD 30		not up in 2026
SD 31		safe R	R+52.4	republican >99%

• the map: each district by its rating, or by its margin; its precincts and counties by the margin. ruled: no race there in 2026.
• a rating is the leader’s chance: 50 to 60 tossup, 60 to 75 lean, 75 to 90 likely, 90 to 100 safe.
• votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
• a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
• data · theoelections projection, 2026