forecasts · by race · state senate
state senate district 11, 2026
safe R · republican 93% to win · R+9.5
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 45.3% | 169,036 | 7% | |
| republican | 54.8% | 204,530 | 93% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas Senate District 11, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in SD 11
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 50.3% | R+3.6 | 377,529 | |
| governor | abbott 54.5% | R+11.1 | 377,529 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 55.0% | R+9.9 | 367,900 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 55.1% | R+10.3 | 367,898 | |
| attorney general | middleton 55.7% | R+11.4 | 367,899 | |
| comptroller | huffines 57.0% | R+14.0 | 367,899 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 56.7% | R+13.5 | 367,900 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 56.9% | R+13.7 | 367,900 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026