forecasts · by race · state senate
state senate district 9, 2026
tossup · democrat 59% to win · D+1.4
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 50.7% | 188,408 | 59% | |
| republican | 49.3% | 183,230 | 41% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas Senate District 9, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in SD 9
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 49.2% | D+1.2 | 376,025 | |
| governor | abbott 52.4% | R+6.9 | 376,025 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 52.9% | R+5.8 | 366,618 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 52.9% | R+5.8 | 366,617 | |
| attorney general | middleton 53.5% | R+7.1 | 366,617 | |
| comptroller | huffines 55.1% | R+10.2 | 366,618 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 55.1% | R+10.3 | 366,619 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 55.2% | R+10.4 | 366,618 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026