forecasts · by race · state senate
state senate district 4, 2026
safe R · republican >99% to win · R+28.6
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 35.7% | 142,850 | <1% | |
| republican | 64.3% | 257,160 | >99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas Senate District 4, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in SD 4
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 58.6% | R+19.6 | 402,822 | |
| governor | abbott 62.4% | R+26.5 | 402,824 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 63.0% | R+26.0 | 394,315 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 63.1% | R+26.1 | 394,315 | |
| attorney general | middleton 63.5% | R+27.1 | 394,315 | |
| comptroller | huffines 64.8% | R+29.7 | 394,314 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 64.7% | R+29.4 | 394,314 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 64.8% | R+29.6 | 394,314 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026