forecasts · by race · state senate
state senate district 5, 2026
safe R · republican 98% to win · R+13.0
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 43.5% | 175,661 | 2% | |
| republican | 56.5% | 228,262 | 98% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas Senate District 5, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in SD 5
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 52.3% | R+7.5 | 406,648 | |
| governor | abbott 56.5% | R+15.0 | 406,650 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 57.2% | R+14.4 | 396,100 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 57.2% | R+14.3 | 396,103 | |
| attorney general | middleton 57.7% | R+15.4 | 396,101 | |
| comptroller | huffines 59.3% | R+18.6 | 396,103 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 59.3% | R+18.7 | 396,102 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 59.4% | R+18.8 | 396,102 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026