forecasts · by race · state senate
state senate district 21, 2026
safe D · democrat >99% to win · D+29.3
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 64.6% | 187,512 | >99% | |
| republican | 35.4% | 102,560 | <1% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas Senate District 21, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in SD 21
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | talarico 60.1% | D+23.4 | 286,371 | |
| governor | hinojosa 57.1% | D+16.4 | 286,371 | |
| railroad commissioner | rosenthal 58.8% | D+17.6 | 278,385 | |
| lieutenant governor | goodwin 57.8% | D+15.7 | 278,386 | |
| attorney general | johnson 57.6% | D+15.3 | 278,385 | |
| comptroller | eckhardt 56.5% | D+12.9 | 278,386 | |
| land commissioner | flores 57.8% | D+15.6 | 278,386 | |
| agriculture commissioner | tucker 57.5% | D+15.0 | 278,385 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026