forecasts · by race · state senate
state senate district 1, 2026
safe R · republican >99% to win · R+50.3
| party | vote, of the two | votes | chance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| democrat | 24.9% | 94,692 | <1% | |
| republican | 75.2% | 286,381 | >99% |
the 2026 forecast for Texas Senate District 1, on the lines in force for 2026. the forecast is of the generic ballot, a democrat against a republican, on the district’s own precincts; it is not a poll of the candidates. open the forecast map.
the statewide races in SD 1
| race | forecast | lead | votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. senator | paxton 71.4% | R+44.9 | 381,597 | |
| governor | abbott 74.3% | R+50.1 | 381,595 | |
| railroad commissioner | french 74.8% | R+49.6 | 374,755 | |
| lieutenant governor | patrick 74.8% | R+49.5 | 374,756 | |
| attorney general | middleton 75.0% | R+50.1 | 374,758 | |
| comptroller | huffines 76.2% | R+52.4 | 374,757 | |
| land commissioner | buckingham 76.1% | R+52.3 | 374,757 | |
| agriculture commissioner | sheets 76.2% | R+52.5 | 374,757 |
- the map: each precinct, county or district by its forecast margin, the leader deeper by points (0 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, 32 and up). ruled: no race there in 2026.
- votes are projected in fractions of a vote and rounded where they are printed.
- a projection of Texas alone, built october 12, 2026. how it is made is on the methodology sheet.
- data · theoelections projection, 2026